Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al-Ahli Jeddah
Match recap
Al-Hilal Saudi FC beat Al-Ahli Jeddah 3–0 in their Pro League fixture. Milinković-Savić, Summerville, and Watkins scored for Al-Hilal Saudi FC. Expected-goals data put the chance balance at 2.16 for Al-Hilal Saudi FC versus 1.35 for Al-Ahli Jeddah. Al-Hilal Saudi FC sit 1st in the Pro League table while Al-Ahli Jeddah are 5th.
Fipster’s pre-match call
Predicted
3-2 Al-Hilal Saudi FC win
Actual
3–0
Outcome probability
The Saudi Professional League heats up as Al-Hilal Saudi FC face off against Al-Ahli Jeddah in the third round of the regular season. Both teams have shown attacking intent, setting the stage for an entertaining match.
Match factors
Al-Hilal's attacking trio in strong form
Watkins, Martinelli, and Milinković-Savić combine high scoring and assist rates, boosting home attack potential
Ivan Toney's prolific scoring for Al-Ahli
Toney leads with 11 goals in 8 games, posing a significant threat despite away status
Al-Hilal's recent unbeaten streak and scoring consistency
Team has won 7 of last 8 with average 3.25 goals scored, supporting predicted home win
Rúben Neves' dual role in attack and defense
High passing accuracy and defensive stats make Neves a key playmaker and disruptor
Defensive solidity from Koulibaly vs Al-Ahli's attackers
Koulibaly's aerial and duel strength critical to contain Toney and Trincão
The context
Al-Hilal currently lead the league with 21 points from 8 games, boasting a superior goal difference of +19. Al-Ahli Jeddah sit in 6th place with 15 points and a +10 goal difference. Historically, Al-Hilal have the upper hand with 9 wins in 20 meetings against Al-Ahli, who have won 4 times with 7 draws.
Key insights
O. Watkins
Al-Hilal Saudi FC
Watkins combines high scoring and assist rates, making him a key offensive focal point for Al-Hilal.
Pro League 26/274 goals and 4 assists in recent games
Ivan Toney
Al-Ahli Jeddah
Toney leads the league with 11 goals in 8 games, posing a significant threat despite playing away.
Pro League 26/2711 goals in 8 games
Rúben Neves
Al-Hilal Saudi FC
Neves' high passing accuracy and defensive contributions make him a vital playmaker and disruptor.
Pro League 26/2787% passing accuracy, 18 tackles, 11 interceptions
- K
K. Koulibaly
Al-Hilal Saudi FC
Koulibaly's aerial and duel strength are critical to containing Al-Ahli's attackers.
Pro League 26/2761.5% duel win rate, consistent starter
Analysis
Al-Hilal's attacking trio of O. Watkins, Gabriel Martinelli, and S. Milinković-Savić have been in fine form, combining goals and assists to great effect. Watkins, in particular, has been a key offensive focal point with 4 goals and 4 assists in recent games. Meanwhile, Al-Ahli's Ivan Toney remains a potent threat, leading the league with 11 goals in 8 games. Defensively, Al-Hilal's K. Koulibaly is expected to play a crucial role in containing Al-Ahli's attackers. The match promises a high-scoring affair given both sides' offensive capabilities.
Key facts
- 1.Al-Hilal Saudi FC lead the league with 21 points from 8 games (W7 D0 L1).
- 2.Al-Ahli Jeddah are 6th with 15 points from 8 games (W5 D0 L3).
- 3.Al-Hilal have a superior goal difference (+19) compared to Al-Ahli (+10) this season.
- 4.In 20 head-to-head meetings, Al-Hilal have won 9, Al-Ahli 4, with 7 draws.
- 5.O. Watkins has scored 4 goals and provided 4 assists in recent matches for Al-Hilal.
- 6.Ivan Toney is the league's top scorer with 11 goals in 8 games for Al-Ahli.
- 7.K. Koulibaly is a defensive stalwart for Al-Hilal with a high duel win rate.
Prediction
We predict a closely contested match with Al-Hilal edging out Al-Ahli 3-2. The home side's attacking depth and recent scoring consistency should give them the slight advantage needed to secure the win, despite Al-Ahli's dangerous forward line.
Player Insights
Standout players Fipster expects to impact the match — curated highlights, not full squad lists
Home — Al-Hilal Saudi FC
Away — Al-Ahli Jeddah
The verdict
Expect an exciting encounter filled with goals and tactical battles. Al-Hilal's home advantage and attacking prowess should see them through, but Al-Ahli's resilience means the visitors will not go down without a fight.
Prediction generated 13 Oct 2026, 09:32 UTC · Fipster Model v1.163
Form as the teams went into this match — excludes this result and anything since.
Team Comparison
Season shape — attack, defence, form, clean sheets & win rate
Home vs Away comparison
Goal difference in each of the last few fixtures — above the line is a net win, below is a net loss
Season comparison
Goals scored & conceded, goal difference and clean sheets across the season
Halftime Performance
What each side does once the whistle goes for half time
Streaks
Recent-form runs — each side’s most-recent game meets in the middle
Head to Head
Milinković-Savić
Assist: Sultan Mandash
Ibañez
Yellow Card
Meïté
Yellow Card
Summerville
Yellow Card
Summerville
Assist: Rúben Neves
Ali Lajami
Toney
Yellow Card
Demiral
Yellow Card
Demiral
Red Card
Demiral
Yellow Card
Meïté
Trincão
Ziyad Al Johani
Mohammed Bakor
Hamidou
Yellow Card
Hernández
Galeno
Watkins
Assist: Sultan Mandash
Zakaria Al Hawsawi
Summerville
Sultan Mandash
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Al-Hilal Saudi FC | 10 | 9 | 0 | 1 | +21 | 27 |
| 2 |  Al-Nassr | 10 | 8 | 1 | 1 | +15 | 25 |
| 4 |  Al-Ittihad FC | 10 | 7 | 2 | 1 | +10 | 23 |
| 5 |  Al-Ahli Jeddah | 10 | 7 | 0 | 3 | +14 | 21 |
| 6 |  NEOM | 11 | 6 | 1 | 4 | +7 | 19 |
Match Statistics
Al-Hilal Saudi FC
4-2-3-1Starting XI
- 2Mohammed Mater Mohsin MahzariD
- 3K. KoulibalyD
- 6Nasser Al DawsariM
- 8Rúben NevesM
- 19T. HernándezD
- 22S. Milinković-SavićM
- 27Sultan MandashM
- 37Y. BounouG
- 38C. SummervilleM
- 75M. MeïtéF
- 78Ali LajamiD
Substitutes
- 11O. WatkinsF
- 18Murad Al HawsawiM
- 24Moteb Al HarbiD
- 28Mohamed KannoM
- 33Mohammed Al OwaisG
- 55M. Al DawoodD
- 72S. DahalF
- 77Nawaf Al HabashiD
- 87Hassan TambaktiD
Al-Ahli Jeddah
4-2-3-1Starting XI
- 2Zakaria Al HawsawiD
- 3IbañezD
- 5Mohammed BakorD
- 6V. Atangana EdoaM
- 7TrincãoM
- 8E. SpertsyanM
- 13GalenoM
- 16É. MendyG
- 17I. ToneyF
- 28M. DemiralD
- 30Ziyad Al JohaniM
Substitutes
- 1Abdulrahman Al SanbiG
- 9Feras Al BrikanF
- 11Meshal Al MutairiM
- 21Abdullah RadifF
- 29Mohammed YousefD
- 31Saad YaslamD
- 46Rayane Hamidou
- 47Waheb SalehF
- 66Naif MasoudM
Al-Hilal Saudi FC
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sultan Mandash | M | 89 | 9.2 | — | 2 | 1 | — | 3 | 1/1 |
| Rúben Neves | M | 90 | 9.2 | — | 1 | — | — | 3 | 1/1 |
| Sergej Milinković-Savić | M | 90 | 7.9 | 1 | — | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0/1 |
| Crysencio Summerville | M | 89 | 7.9 | 1 | — | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1/3 |
| Ali Lajami | D | 30 | 7.6 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
| Kalidou Koulibaly | D | 90 | 7.3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Yassine Bounou | G | 90 | 7.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Nasser Al-Dawsari(C) | M | 90 | 6.9 | — | — | 1 | 1 | — | — |
| Mohammed Mahzari | D | 90 | 6.9 | — | — | — | — | — | 1/1 |
| Theo Hernández | D | 52 | 6.6 | — | — | 1 | — | — | 0/1 |
| Mohamed Kader Meite | F | 45 | 6.2 | — | — | — | — | — | 1/1 |
| Substitutes | |||||||||
| Sabri Abdu Dahal | F | 1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Meshal Al Dawood | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Murad Al Hawsawi | M | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Mohammed Al-Owais | G | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Nawaf Al-Habashi | D | 1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Mohamed Kanno | M | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Ollie Watkins | F | 45 | 7.3 | 1 | — | 3 | 1 | — | 3/4 |
| Moteb Al-Harbi | D | 38 | 7.2 | — | — | 2 | 1 | — | 1/1 |
| Hassan Tambakti | D | 60 | 6.7 | — | — | 1 | 1 | — | — |
Al-Ahli Jeddah
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Valentin Atangana Edoa | M | 90 | 7.2 | — | — | — | — | 1 | 0/1 |
| Edouard Mendy(C) | G | 90 | 7.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Ivan Toney | F | 90 | 6.9 | — | — | 2 | — | — | 1/2 |
| Eduard Spertsyan | M | 90 | 6.9 | — | — | — | — | 7 | — |
| Roger Ibañez | D | 90 | 6.3 | — | — | 2 | — | — | 0/1 |
| Francisco Trincão | M | 45 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Ziyad Aljohani | M | 45 | 6.2 | — | — | 1 | — | — | — |
| Wenderson Galeno | M | 82 | 6.0 | — | — | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0/2 |
| Zakaria Hawsawi | D | 87 | 5.9 | — | — | — | — | — | 1/2 |
| Mohammed Sulaiman Bakor | D | 45 | 5.7 | — | — | 1 | — | — | — |
| Merih Demiral | D | 52 | 5.2 | — | — | 1 | — | — | — |
| Substitutes | |||||||||
| Abdullah Radif | F | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Saleh Abu Al-Shamat | F | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Abdulrahman Al Sanbi | G | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Saad Yaslam Balobaid | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Firas Al-Buraikan | F | 45 | 6.6 | — | — | — | — | 1 | 1/2 |
| Meshal Al Mutairi | M | 8 | 6.6 | — | — | 1 | — | — | — |
| Naif Masoud | M | 8 | 6.5 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Mohammed Abdulrahman | D | 45 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | — | 0/1 |
| Rayan Hamed | D | 45 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Prediction Q&A
- Who did Fipster predict to win Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al-Ahli Jeddah?
- Fipster's AI model predicted Al-Hilal Saudi FC to win against Al-Ahli Jeddah.
- What score did Fipster predict for Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al-Ahli Jeddah?
- Fipster predicted a final score of Al-Hilal Saudi FC 3–2 Al-Ahli Jeddah.
- What were the win probabilities for Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al-Ahli Jeddah?
- Fipster's model gave Al-Hilal Saudi FC a 35% chance of winning, Al-Ahli Jeddah a 32% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw.
- How confident was Fipster in this prediction?
- Fipster's model assigned this prediction 35% confidence — a low-confidence call.