Al-Fayha vs Abha
Match recap
Al-Fayha beat Abha 3–2 in their Pro League fixture. Lázaro, Lázaro, and Diallo scored for Al-Fayha; Gory and Batshuayi replied for Abha. Expected-goals data put the chance balance at 1.93 for Al-Fayha versus 1.49 for Abha. Al-Fayha sit 14th in the Pro League table while Abha are 18th.
Fipster’s pre-match call
Predicted
3-1 Al-Fayha win
Actual
3–2
Outcome probability
Al-Fayha and Abha face off in the Saudi Pro League's fourth round, with Al-Fayha looking to extend their positive home form. Both teams have shown attacking intent, but Al-Fayha's recent performances suggest they have the edge.
Match factors
Lázaro's home scoring form vs Abha's defense
Lázaro has scored 3 goals in last 3 home games, exploiting Abha's weak defense that concedes 1.86 goals per game
Al-Fayha's superior passing and possession control
Key midfielders like Hugo Moura and Alfa Semedo exceed league average passing accuracy and volume, aiding attack build-up
Al-Fayha's recent scoring streak at home
Team has scored in 3 consecutive home matches, indicating positive attacking momentum
Full squad availability boosts Al-Fayha's attacking options
No confirmed injuries or absences, ensuring key scorers and assisters are available for selection
The context
This fixture is part of the regular season where Al-Fayha currently enjoy a better league standing and points per game than Abha. Historically, Al-Fayha have the upper hand in their head-to-head meetings, having won more encounters than Abha.
Key insights
Lázaro
Al-Fayha
Lázaro has scored 3 goals in his last 3 home games, exploiting Abha's weak defence that concedes 1.86 goals per game.
Pro League 26/273 goals in 8 games, 0.375 avg per game
Hugo Moura
Al-Fayha
Hugo Moura's high passing accuracy (90%) and consistent starts help control the midfield and support attacks.
Pro League 26/272 goals in 8 games, 0.25 avg per game
Analysis
Al-Fayha's attacking threat is spearheaded by Lázaro, who has netted three goals in his last three home matches, exploiting Abha's defence that concedes nearly two goals per game. Midfielders like Hugo Moura and Alfa Semedo contribute with high passing accuracy and volume, helping control possession and build attacks. The home side's recent scoring streak at home and full squad availability further bolster their chances.
Key facts
- 1.Al-Fayha have a better league standing and points per game than Abha.
- 2.In 10 head-to-head meetings, Al-Fayha have won 4, Abha 2, with 4 draws.
- 3.Lázaro is Al-Fayha's top scorer with 3 goals this season, all at home.
- 4.Al-Fayha have scored in their last 3 consecutive home matches.
- 5.Abha concedes an average of 1.86 goals per game, indicating defensive vulnerabilities.
- 6.Midfielders Hugo Moura and Alfa Semedo have above-average passing accuracy and volume.
- 7.The predicted total number of cards in the match is 4, suggesting moderate discipline issues.
Prediction
We predict a 3-1 victory for Al-Fayha, with a halftime lead of 1-0. The match is expected to feature moderate disciplinary action, with around four cards likely to be shown. Al-Fayha's superior form and attacking options should see them comfortably through.
Player Insights
Standout players Fipster expects to impact the match — curated highlights, not full squad lists
Home — Al-Fayha
Away — Abha
No standout top scorers flagged for Abha
The verdict
In summary, Al-Fayha's combination of home advantage, key player form, and tactical control points to a solid win over Abha. Expect a lively encounter with goals and some competitive moments, but ultimately a clear home victory.
Prediction generated 13 Oct 2026, 09:41 UTC · Fipster Model v1.163
Form as the teams went into this match — excludes this result and anything since.
Team Comparison
Season shape — attack, defence, form, clean sheets & win rate
Home vs Away comparison
Goal difference in each of the last few fixtures — above the line is a net win, below is a net loss
Season comparison
Goals scored & conceded, goal difference and clean sheets across the season
Halftime Performance
What each side does once the whistle goes for half time
Streaks
Recent-form runs — each side’s most-recent game meets in the middle
Head to Head
Rosier
Lázaro
Al Shamrani
Yellow Card
Gaari
Yellow Card
Faisal Al Subiani
Lázaro
Unknown
Al Shamrani
Diallo
Yellow Card
Paulo Oliveira
Fekir
Lázaro
Al-Harthi
Gory
Diallo (OG)
Moura
Penalty confirmed
Batshuayi
Penalty
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Al-Hilal Saudi FC | 10 | 9 | 0 | 1 | +21 | 27 |
| 13 |  Al Riyadh | 9 | 2 | 3 | 4 | -9 | 9 |
| 14 |  Al-Fayha | 11 | 1 | 5 | 5 | -7 | 8 |
| 15 |  Al-Faisaly FC | 10 | 1 | 4 | 5 | -9 | 7 |
| 17 |  Al Taawon | 10 | 0 | 4 | 6 | -13 | 4 |
| 18 |  Abha | 9 | 0 | 2 | 7 | -11 | 2 |
Match Statistics
Al-Fayha
4-1-4-1Starting XI
- 2Mukhir Al RashidiD
- 5Hugo MouraM
- 6Ali Al HussainM
- 7Nawaf Al-HarthiM
- 10F. SakalaM
- 15Paulo OliveiraD
- 17LázaroF
- 22Mohammed Al BaqawiD
- 24Ahmed BamasudD
- 30Alfa SemedoM
- 52O. MosqueraG
Substitutes
- 1Abdulraoof Al-DeqeelG
- 9Malek Al AbdulmanamF
- 14Mansor Al BesheM
- 21Ziyad Al SahafiD
- 35S. GanvoulaF
- 43Fahad Majed AlhubayshiM
- 47Mohammed Al DowaishD
- 77R. Enad
Abha
4-2-3-1Starting XI
- 3J. GaariD
- 6Faisal Al SubianiM
- 10N. FekirM
- 11A. GoryM
- 12K. Al ShamraniD
- 16D. LéonG
- 20K. Al Qahtani
- 22A. DialloD
- 32L. RosierM
- 44M. BatshuayiF
- 80Safwan SaudD
Substitutes
- 4Basil Al SayyaliM
- 7Firas Al-GhamdiM
- 8Nasser Al Daajani
- 19Abdullah Al FahadD
- 21A. Al Bouq
- 28Bader Al MutairiM
- 29Majed DawranM
- 37Abdulbasit Al-HindiD
- 39M. Al-ZaidM
Al-Fayha
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lázaro | F | 80 | 8.5 | 2 | — | 4 | 4 | 1 | — |
| Nawaf Al-Harthi | M | 81 | 7.5 | — | — | — | — | 1 | 2/4 |
| Hugo Moura | M | 87 | 7.3 | — | — | 1 | — | 5 | — |
| Alfa Semedo | M | 90 | 7.2 | — | — | 2 | — | 4 | 2/2 |
| Fashion Sakala | M | 90 | 7.0 | — | — | 4 | 2 | 1 | 6/8 |
| Orlando Mosquera | G | 90 | 6.9 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Mohammed Al Baqawi(C) | D | 90 | 6.6 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Mokher Al-Rashidi | D | 90 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Paulo Oliveira | D | 76 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Ali Al Hussain | M | 90 | 6.3 | — | — | 1 | — | 1 | — |
| Ahmed Bamasud | D | 90 | 6.0 | — | — | 1 | — | 1 | — |
| Substitutes | |||||||||
| Malek Al Abdulmonam | F | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Abdulraouf Al-Duqayl | G | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Rayan Enad | F | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Mohammed Al Dowaish | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Silvère Ganvoula | F | 10 | 6.6 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Ziyad Al-Sahafi | D | 14 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | — | 1/1 |
| Mansor Al-Beshe | M | 9 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fahad Majed Alhubayshi | M | 9 | 6.2 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Abha
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Loreintz Rosier | M | 4 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Alimami Gory | M | 90 | 7.3 | 1 | — | 3 | 2 | — | 2/3 |
| Keshim Al-Qahtani | M | 90 | 7.0 | — | — | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4/7 |
| Michy Batshuayi | F | 90 | 6.9 | 1 | — | 2 | 2 | — | 1/1 |
| Jurien Gaari(C) | D | 90 | 6.5 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Donovan Léon | G | 90 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Safwan Aljohani | D | 90 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | 1 | 1/2 |
| Khaled Al Shamrani | D | 59 | 6.3 | — | — | 1 | — | — | 2/2 |
| Nabil Fekir | M | 80 | 6.2 | — | — | — | — | 1 | 0/1 |
| Abdou Diallo | D | 90 | 6.2 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Faisal Al-Sibyani | M | 45 | 5.9 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Substitutes | |||||||||
| Abdulrahman Al Bouq | G | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Bader Al Mutairi | M | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Basil Yousef Al-Sayyali | M | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Abdullah Al-Fahad | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Mohammed Al-Zaid | M | 55 | 6.9 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
| Nasser Al-Daajani | M | 45 | 6.5 | — | — | — | — | — | 2/2 |
| Abdulbaset Hindi | D | 31 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Majed Dawran | M | 10 | 6.2 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Firas Al-Ghamdi | M | 31 | 6.2 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
Prediction Q&A
- Who did Fipster predict to win Al-Fayha vs Abha?
- Fipster's AI model predicted Al-Fayha to win against Abha.
- What score did Fipster predict for Al-Fayha vs Abha?
- Fipster predicted a final score of Al-Fayha 3–1 Abha.
- What were the win probabilities for Al-Fayha vs Abha?
- Fipster's model gave Al-Fayha a 72% chance of winning, Abha a 14% chance, and a 14% chance of a draw.
- How confident was Fipster in this prediction?
- Fipster's model assigned this prediction 72% confidence — a high-confidence call.