Al-Ettifaq vs Al Riyadh
Match recap
Al-Ettifaq beat Al Riyadh 4–2 in their Pro League fixture. Dembélé, Dembélé, Messi, and Dembélé scored for Al-Ettifaq; Okou and Mensah replied for Al Riyadh. Expected-goals data put the chance balance at 2.67 for Al-Ettifaq versus 0.63 for Al Riyadh. Al-Ettifaq sit 7th in the Pro League table while Al Riyadh are 13th.
Fipster’s pre-match call
Predicted
2-1 Al-Ettifaq win
Actual
4–2
Outcome probability
The new season kicks off with Al-Ettifaq and Al Riyadh facing off in what promises to be a competitive encounter. Both teams have shown glimpses of quality, but Al-Ettifaq's better goal difference and home form give them a slight edge.
Match factors
Al-Ettifaq's focal striker advantage
Moussa Dembélé's strong home scoring form and central striker role gives Al-Ettifaq a key attacking edge
Creative midfield dominance for Al-Ettifaq
Álvaro Medrán leads in assists and passing accuracy, enhancing Al-Ettifaq's chance creation
Al Riyadh's attacking threats consistent
Teddy Okou and Trézéguet have scored recently, maintaining Al Riyadh's offensive threat despite lower team form
Defensive solidity from Al Riyadh's Abascal
Rodrigo Abascal's defensive contributions and occasional goals provide stability and attacking support
The context
This is the first round of the regular season, with Al-Ettifaq sitting 7th in the league table on 12 points from 8 games last season, while Al Riyadh finished 11th with 9 points. Their recent head-to-head record is fairly balanced, with Al-Ettifaq winning three of six matches, Al Riyadh two, and one draw.
Key insights
M. Dembélé
Al-Ettifaq
Moussa Dembélé’s strong home scoring form and role as focal striker give Al-Ettifaq a key attacking edge.
Pro League 26/273 goals in 8 appearances, 3 goals in 5 home matches
Álvaro Medrán
Al-Ettifaq
Álvaro Medrán’s creativity and high passing accuracy boost Al-Ettifaq’s chance creation significantly.
Pro League 26/273 assists in 8 appearances, 86% passing accuracy
T. Okou
Al Riyadh
Teddy Okou’s consistent scoring keeps Al Riyadh’s attack dangerous despite their overall struggles.
Pro League 26/273 goals in 8 appearances
- R
R. Abascal
Al Riyadh
Rodrigo Abascal’s defensive contributions and occasional goals provide stability for Al Riyadh.
Pro League 26/277 tackles and 1 assist in 7 games
Analysis
Al-Ettifaq's attacking threat is spearheaded by Moussa Dembélé, who boasts three goals in eight appearances and a strong home scoring record. Midfielder Álvaro Medrán adds creativity with three assists and high passing accuracy, enhancing their chance creation. Al Riyadh's main offensive outlets, Teddy Okou and Trézéguet, have been consistent scorers but face a tough defensive challenge. Rodrigo Abascal provides defensive solidity for Al Riyadh, but the visitors' negative goal difference suggests they may struggle to contain Al-Ettifaq's attack.
Key facts
- 1.Al-Ettifaq have won 3 of 6 head-to-head matches against Al Riyadh.
- 2.Al-Ettifaq ranked 7th last season with 12 points; Al Riyadh 11th with 9 points.
- 3.Al-Ettifaq have a positive goal difference of +8 compared to Al Riyadh's -8.
- 4.Moussa Dembélé is Al-Ettifaq's top scorer with 3 goals in 8 games.
- 5.Álvaro Medrán leads Al-Ettifaq with 3 assists and high passing accuracy.
- 6.Teddy Okou is Al Riyadh's top scorer with 3 goals this season.
- 7.Rodrigo Abascal provides defensive stability for Al Riyadh with 7 tackles and 1 assist.
Prediction
We predict a 2-1 victory for Al-Ettifaq after a tight first half ending 1-1. The home side's superior goal difference and key players' form should see them edge this encounter, though the margin is expected to be narrow.
Player Insights
Standout players Fipster expects to impact the match — curated highlights, not full squad lists
Home — Al-Ettifaq
Away — Al Riyadh
The verdict
While the match looks finely balanced, Al-Ettifaq's home advantage and attacking focal points give them the upper hand. Expect a spirited contest with Al Riyadh pushing hard, but ultimately falling just short.
Prediction generated 13 Oct 2026, 10:00 UTC · Fipster Model v1.163
Form as the teams went into this match — excludes this result and anything since.
Team Comparison
Season shape — attack, defence, form, clean sheets & win rate
Season comparison
Goals scored & conceded, goal difference and clean sheets across the season
Halftime Performance
What each side does once the whistle goes for half time
Streaks
Recent-form runs — each side’s most-recent game meets in the middle
Head to Head
Card upgrade
Abascal
Red Card
Leandro Antunes
Dembélé
Assist: Medrán
Lekhal
Yellow Card
Okou
Assist: Mensah
Unknown
Duda
Yellow Card
Dembélé
Penalty
Yasir Shammari
Yellow Card
Mensah
Gluščević
Al Otaibi
Lekhal
Messi
Yasir Shammari
Okou
Madallah Al Olayan
Penalty confirmed
Dembélé
Penalty
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Al-Hilal Saudi FC | 10 | 9 | 0 | 1 | +21 | 27 |
| 6 |  NEOM | 11 | 6 | 1 | 4 | +7 | 19 |
| 7 |  Al-Ettifaq | 11 | 5 | 3 | 3 | +1 | 18 |
| 8 |  Al Diriyah | 11 | 4 | 3 | 4 | -2 | 15 |
| 12 |  Al-Hazm | 11 | 2 | 4 | 5 | -4 | 10 |
| 13 |  Al Riyadh | 9 | 2 | 3 | 4 | -9 | 9 |
| 14 |  Al-Fayha | 11 | 1 | 5 | 5 | -7 | 8 |
Match Statistics
Al-Ettifaq
4-1-4-1Starting XI
- 4J. HendryD
- 9M. DembéléF
- 10Álvaro MedránM
- 11O. DudaM
- 29Z. Al Ghamdi
- 33Madallah Al OlayanD
- 58Yasir ShammariM
- 61Radhi Al OtaibiD
- 70Abdullah KhateebD
- 71M. GluščevićM
- 92Turki Ba Al Jawsh
Substitutes
- 3Abdullah MaduD
- 6Faris Al GhamdiM
- 7Khalid Al GhannamF
- 13Meshal Al AlaeliD
- 23Ahmad Al HarbiG
- 43B. CelinaM
- 80R. MessiM
- 87Meshal Sibyani
- 88Ali Al EssaF
Al Riyadh
4-3-3Starting XI
- 2Sultan AlessaD
- 7TrézéguetF
- 10T. OkouF
- 12Sulaiman HazaziD
- 22V. LekhalM
- 26R. AbascalD
- 43B. MensahM
- 67Mohammed Al KhaibariD
- 77Leandro AntunesF
- 79F. Al JayzaniM
- 82M. BorjanG
Substitutes
- 11H. Al Ali
- 14Essam BahriD
- 16Faisal Al SobhiM
- 17Hussain Al-Raqwani
- 19A. M. MohammedM
- 24A. Al Tale
- 29S. MatarM
- 97Emad FidaG
Al-Ettifaq
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Moussa Dembélé | F | 90 | 8.0 | 3 | — | 6 | 5 | — | 2/2 |
| Álvaro Medrán | M | 90 | 7.7 | — | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | — |
| Jack Hendry | D | 90 | 7.5 | — | — | — | — | 2 | — |
| Ondrej Duda | M | 90 | 7.3 | — | — | — | — | — | 2/2 |
| Abdullah Al Ghamdi | M | 45 | 7.2 | — | — | 3 | 1 | 2 | 3/3 |
| Abdullah Khateeb(C) | D | 90 | 6.9 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Madallah Al-Olayan | D | 88 | 6.7 | — | — | — | — | 2 | — |
| Turki Ba Al-Jawsh | G | 90 | 6.5 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Radhi Al-Oteibi | D | 64 | 6.0 | — | — | — | — | 2 | 0/1 |
| Matija Glušćević | M | 64 | 6.0 | — | — | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0/3 |
| Yasir Shammari | M | 79 | 5.9 | — | — | — | — | 1 | 0/1 |
| Substitutes | |||||||||
| Meshal Ali Khayrallah | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Ahmad Al Harbi | G | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Ali Al-Essa | F | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Faris Al Ghamdi | M | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Rayane Messi | M | 26 | 7.2 | 1 | — | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0/2 |
| Khalid Al-Ghannam | F | 45 | 6.9 | — | — | — | — | 2 | 2/3 |
| Meshal Alaeli | D | 26 | 6.7 | — | — | 1 | 1 | — | — |
| Abdullah Madu | D | 15 | 6.6 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Bersant Celina | M | 11 | 6.3 | — | — | 1 | 1 | — | — |
Al Riyadh
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bernard Mensah | M | 90 | 8.5 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2/2 |
| Teddy Okou | F | 81 | 7.3 | 1 | — | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0/1 |
| Mahmoud Trézéguet | F | 90 | 6.9 | — | — | — | — | — | 0/1 |
| Fahad Al Jayzani | M | 90 | 6.9 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Milan Borjan(C) | G | 90 | 6.7 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Leandro Antunes | F | 11 | 6.5 | — | — | 1 | 1 | — | 0/1 |
| Victor Lekhal | M | 69 | 6.5 | — | — | 1 | — | 1 | — |
| Sultan Alessa | D | 90 | 6.2 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
| Sulaiman Hahya Hazazi | D | 90 | 5.9 | — | — | — | — | — | 0/1 |
| Mohammed Al-Khaibari | D | 90 | 5.7 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Rodrigo Abascal | D | 6 | 3.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Substitutes | |||||||||
| Salman Matar | M | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Hussain Al-Raqwani | F | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Essam Bahri | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Cheikh Fall | M | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Emad Fidaa | G | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Hassan Hashim Al-Ali | F | 9 | 6.5 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Hussain Al-Shurafa | M | 21 | 6.2 | — | — | 1 | — | 1 | — |
| Faisal Al-Sobhi | M | 79 | 6.2 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Prediction Q&A
- Who did Fipster predict to win Al-Ettifaq vs Al Riyadh?
- Fipster's AI model predicted Al-Ettifaq to win against Al Riyadh.
- What score did Fipster predict for Al-Ettifaq vs Al Riyadh?
- Fipster predicted a final score of Al-Ettifaq 2–1 Al Riyadh.
- What were the win probabilities for Al-Ettifaq vs Al Riyadh?
- Fipster's model gave Al-Ettifaq a 35% chance of winning, Al Riyadh a 32% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw.
- How confident was Fipster in this prediction?
- Fipster's model assigned this prediction 35% confidence — a low-confidence call.