Al-Ettifaq vs Al Diriyah
Match recap
Al Diriyah beat Al-Ettifaq 3–0 in their Pro League fixture. Núñez, Boulbina, and Núñez scored for Al Diriyah. Expected-goals data put the chance balance at 1.35 for Al-Ettifaq versus 2.33 for Al Diriyah. Al-Ettifaq sit 7th in the Pro League table while Al Diriyah are 8th.
Fipster’s pre-match call
Predicted
1-2 Al Diriyah win
Actual
0–3
Outcome probability
As the Saudi Pro League season progresses, Al Diriyah and Al-Ettifaq face off in what promises to be a competitive fixture. Both sides have shown glimpses of quality, but recent form and attacking partnerships could tip the scales.
Match factors
Al Diriyah's attacking duo synergy
Óscar Rodríguez's 3 assists complement Darwin Núñez's 3 goals, forming a potent attacking partnership
Medrán's creative influence for Al-Ettifaq
Álvaro Medrán leads Al-Ettifaq with 3 assists and high passing accuracy, key to unlocking defenses
Núñez's strong recent away scoring form
Darwin Núñez scored 3 goals in last 3 away matches, boosting Al Diriyah's chances on the road
Gueye's defensive midfield dominance
Idrissa Gana Gueye's high tackle rate (3.25 per game) and duel success disrupts opponent attacks
Full squad availability enhances tactical options
No confirmed injuries for either team, allowing coaches to field strongest lineups
The context
This match is part of the Regular Season - 4 round in the Saudi Pro League. Al-Ettifaq currently sit 7th with 12 points from 8 games, while Al Diriyah are close behind in 9th with 11 points from the same number of matches. Their previous encounter saw Al Diriyah claim a convincing 3-0 win, adding an intriguing edge to this meeting.
Key insights
Darwin Núñez
Al Diriyah
Leads Al Diriyah scoring with 3 goals in 6 games and has scored in each of the last 3 away matches, making him a constant threat on the road.
Pro League 26/273 goals in 6 appearances, 3 goals in last 3 away matches
Álvaro Medrán
Al-Ettifaq
Top assister with 3 assists and an 86% passing accuracy, Medrán is crucial in creating chances and unlocking defences for Al-Ettifaq.
Pro League 26/273 assists in 8 appearances, 86% passing accuracy
Óscar Rodríguez
Al Diriyah
Provides a strong creative link with 3 assists in 5 games, complementing Núñez's goal-scoring prowess effectively.
Pro League 26/273 assists in 5 appearances
- I
Idrissa Gana Gueye
Al Diriyah
Dominates defensively with 3.25 tackles per game and a 64.3% duel win rate, key to disrupting Al-Ettifaq's midfield flow.
Pro League 26/273.25 tackles per game, 64.3% duel win rate
Analysis
Al Diriyah's attacking duo of Darwin Núñez and Óscar Rodríguez have been pivotal, with Núñez netting 3 goals in his last 3 away matches and Rodríguez providing 3 assists in 5 games. Al-Ettifaq rely on M. Dembélé, who has a solid home scoring record with 3 goals in 5 home matches. Álvaro Medrán's creativity, highlighted by 3 assists and high passing accuracy, is key for Al-Ettifaq's chances. However, Al Diriyah's defensive midfield, led by Idrissa Gana Gueye with a high tackle rate and duel success, could disrupt Al-Ettifaq's rhythm. The prediction leans towards a narrow away win, reflecting Al Diriyah's recent dominance and attacking synergy.
Key facts
- 1.Al Diriyah won the only previous meeting 3-0.
- 2.Al-Ettifaq are 7th with 12 points from 8 games.
- 3.Al Diriyah are 9th with 11 points from 8 games.
- 4.Darwin Núñez scored 3 goals in his last 3 away matches.
- 5.M. Dembélé has 3 goals in 5 home matches for Al-Ettifaq.
- 6.Álvaro Medrán leads Al-Ettifaq with 3 assists and 86% passing accuracy.
- 7.Óscar Rodríguez has provided 3 assists in 5 games for Al Diriyah.
- 8.Idrissa Gana Gueye averages 3.25 tackles per game, disrupting opposition play.
Prediction
We expect Al Diriyah to clinch a 2-1 victory over Al-Ettifaq. The away side's attacking form and previous head-to-head success suggest they have the edge, though Al-Ettifaq's home strengths mean it should be a closely contested match.
Player Insights
Standout players Fipster expects to impact the match — curated highlights, not full squad lists
Home — Al-Ettifaq
Away — Al Diriyah
The verdict
In summary, while Al-Ettifaq have the home advantage and creative spark, Al Diriyah's recent performances and attacking partnerships make them favourites to take all three points. Fans can anticipate an entertaining encounter with goals on both sides.
Prediction generated 13 Oct 2026, 09:35 UTC · Fipster Model v1.163
Form as the teams went into this match — excludes this result and anything since.
Team Comparison
Season shape — attack, defence, form, clean sheets & win rate
Home vs Away comparison
Goal difference in each of the last few fixtures — above the line is a net win, below is a net loss
Season comparison
Goals scored & conceded, goal difference and clean sheets across the season
Halftime Performance
What each side does once the whistle goes for half time
Streaks
Recent-form runs — each side’s most-recent game meets in the middle
Head to Head
Núñez
Assist: Rodríguez
Khalid Al Asiri
Yellow Card
Al Otaibi
Meshal Sibyani
Yellow Card
Boulbina
Assist: Rodríguez
Larsson
Yasir Shammari
Unknown
Boulbina
Khalid Al Asiri
Meshal Al Alaeli
Celina
Núñez
Assist: Diandy
Rodríguez
Núñez
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Al-Hilal Saudi FC | 10 | 9 | 0 | 1 | +21 | 27 |
| 6 |  NEOM | 11 | 6 | 1 | 4 | +7 | 19 |
| 7 |  Al-Ettifaq | 11 | 5 | 3 | 3 | +1 | 18 |
| 8 |  Al Diriyah | 11 | 4 | 3 | 4 | -2 | 15 |
| 9 |  Al Kholood | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | -7 | 12 |
Match Statistics
Al-Ettifaq
4-1-4-1Starting XI
- 4J. HendryD
- 9M. DembéléF
- 10Álvaro MedránM
- 11O. DudaM
- 13Meshal Al AlaeliD
- 17J. LarssonM
- 43B. CelinaM
- 58Yasir ShammariM
- 61Radhi Al OtaibiD
- 70Abdullah KhateebD
- 92Turki Ba Al Jawsh
Substitutes
- 3Abdullah MaduD
- 6Faris Al GhamdiM
- 7Khalid Al GhannamF
- 15Abdullah Al BishiF
- 22Abdulbasit Hawsawi
- 71M. GluščevićF
- 80R. MessiM
- 87Meshal Sibyani
- 88Ali Al EssaF
Al Diriyah
Starting XI
- 5I. GueyeM
- 10A. BoulbinaM
- 12T. Wadi
- 14Óscar RodríguezF
- 17C. DiandyM
- 20E. MillotM
- 22N. VasiljG
- 29D. NúñezF
- 78Khalid Al AsiriD
- 87Qassem LajamiD
- 99C. MbembaD
Substitutes
- 2Abdulaziz Al FarajD
- 6Sultan Al FarhanM
- 11Hattan BahbriF
- 21M. HameranD
- 32Abdullah Al ZaidF
- 33Waleed AbdullahG
- 52Hussain Al QahtaniM
- 75Meshari Al NemerF
- 88Abdulelah Al MalkiM
Al-Ettifaq
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Turki Ba Al-Jawsh | G | 90 | 7.6 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Álvaro Medrán | M | 90 | 7.3 | — | — | 2 | — | 2 | 1/1 |
| Jack Hendry | D | 90 | 6.9 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
| Jordan Larsson | M | 54 | 6.9 | — | — | — | — | 2 | 1/1 |
| Bersant Celina | M | 72 | 6.9 | — | — | 3 | 1 | 1 | 2/4 |
| Ondrej Duda | M | 90 | 6.9 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
| Moussa Dembélé | F | 90 | 6.7 | — | — | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1/1 |
| Yasir Shammari | M | 54 | 6.7 | — | — | 1 | 1 | 2 | — |
| Abdullah Khateeb(C) | D | 90 | 6.6 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Meshal Alaeli | D | 72 | 6.5 | — | — | 1 | 1 | — | — |
| Radhi Al-Oteibi | D | 27 | 6.3 | — | — | 1 | — | 1 | — |
| Substitutes | |||||||||
| Abdullah Madu | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Abdulbasit Hawsawi | G | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Matija Glušćević | F | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Ali Al-Essa | F | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Rayane Messi | M | 36 | 6.9 | — | — | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0/1 |
| Abdullah Al Bishi | F | 18 | 6.9 | — | — | 1 | 1 | — | — |
| Khalid Al-Ghannam | F | 36 | 6.7 | — | — | — | — | 3 | 2/5 |
| Faris Al Ghamdi | M | 18 | 6.6 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Meshal Ali Khayrallah | D | 63 | 5.9 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Al Diriyah
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nikola Vasilj | G | 90 | 9.2 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Darwin Núñez | F | 89 | 8.9 | 2 | — | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1/2 |
| Óscar Rodríguez | F | 82 | 8.0 | — | 2 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 1/1 |
| Clayton Diandy | M | 90 | 7.5 | — | 1 | — | — | 4 | 2/3 |
| Idrissa Gana Gueye(C) | M | 90 | 7.3 | — | — | 1 | — | 1 | 0/1 |
| Adil Boulbina | M | 59 | 7.3 | 1 | — | 1 | 1 | — | 1/1 |
| Enzo Millot | M | 90 | 7.2 | — | — | — | — | 1 | 1/1 |
| Qasim Lajami | D | 90 | 7.2 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Chancel Mbemba | D | 90 | 7.2 | — | — | 1 | — | — | — |
| Taher Wadi | D | 58 | 6.6 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Khalid Al-Asiri | D | 59 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Substitutes | |||||||||
| Abdulelah Al-Malki | M | 1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 0/1 |
| Sultan Farhan | M | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Abdullah Zaid | F | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Waleed Abdullah | G | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Husain Al-Qahtani | M | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Hattan Bahebri | F | 31 | 6.9 | — | — | 1 | 1 | — | 0/1 |
| Abdulaziz Al-Faraj | D | 32 | 6.6 | — | — | — | — | — | 1/3 |
| Mohamed Hameran | D | 31 | 6.6 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
| Meshari Fahad Al-Nemer | F | 8 | 6.6 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Prediction Q&A
- Who did Fipster predict to win Al-Ettifaq vs Al Diriyah?
- Fipster's AI model predicted Al Diriyah to win against Al-Ettifaq.
- What score did Fipster predict for Al-Ettifaq vs Al Diriyah?
- Fipster predicted a final score of Al-Ettifaq 1–2 Al Diriyah.
- What were the win probabilities for Al-Ettifaq vs Al Diriyah?
- Fipster's model gave Al-Ettifaq a 7% chance of winning, Al Diriyah a 85% chance, and a 8% chance of a draw.
- How confident was Fipster in this prediction?
- Fipster's model assigned this prediction 85% confidence — a high-confidence call.