Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al Riyadh
Match recap
Al-Ahli Jeddah beat Al Riyadh 5–0 in their Pro League fixture. Toney, Spertsyan, Trincão, Toney, and Naif Masoud scored for Al-Ahli Jeddah. Expected-goals data put the chance balance at 3.46 for Al-Ahli Jeddah versus 0.79 for Al Riyadh. Al-Ahli Jeddah sit 5th in the Pro League table while Al Riyadh are 13th.
Fipster’s pre-match call
Predicted
4-0 Al-Ahli Jeddah win
Actual
5–0
Outcome probability
Al-Ahli Jeddah face off against Al Riyadh in the Saudi Professional League's fifth round, with the home side looking to extend their strong run of form. Both teams have had contrasting fortunes this season, setting the stage for a one-sided encounter.
Match factors
Al-Ahli's potent home attack led by Ivan Toney
Toney's 11 goals in 8 games and strong home form give Al-Ahli a clear scoring edge
Creative midfield duo Trincão and Spertsyan drive Al-Ahli's offense
Combined 7 goals and 5 assists with high passing accuracy underpin team's attacking threat
Al Riyadh's limited scoring form contrasts with Al-Ahli's dominance
Al Riyadh's top scorer has only 3 goals in 8 games, limiting their offensive threat
No confirmed injuries for either team, full squads expected
Both teams have no confirmed outs, maximizing tactical options and player availability
The context
Al-Ahli Jeddah currently sit 6th in the league with 15 points from 8 games, boasting a significantly better goal difference than Al Riyadh, who are 11th with 9 points. Historically, Al-Ahli have the upper hand, having won six of nine head-to-head matches against Al Riyadh.
Key insights
Ivan Toney
Al-Ahli Jeddah
Toney's 11 goals in 8 games, including 8 at home, make him a lethal threat for Al-Ahli.
Pro League 26/2711 goals in 8 appearances, 8 goals in 3 home matches
Trincão
Al-Ahli Jeddah
Trincão's 5 goals and 2 assists with high passing accuracy underpin Al-Ahli's attacking creativity.
Pro League 26/275 goals and 2 assists in 8 appearances, 83% passing accuracy
Eduard Spertsyan
Al-Ahli Jeddah
Spertsyan's 3 assists in 8 games highlight his key role in setting up goals for Al-Ahli.
Pro League 26/273 assists in 8 appearances
Analysis
Al-Ahli's attacking threat is spearheaded by Ivan Toney, who has netted 11 goals in 8 games, including a remarkable 8 goals in just 3 home matches. Midfielders Trincão and Eduard Spertsyan add creativity and goal contributions, combining for 7 goals and 5 assists. Al Riyadh's offensive output pales in comparison, with their top scorer managing only 3 goals this season. The home side's superior goal difference and form suggest a dominant performance.
Key facts
- 1.Al-Ahli Jeddah have won 6 of 9 head-to-head matches against Al Riyadh.
- 2.Al-Ahli Jeddah are 6th in the league with 15 points from 8 games; Al Riyadh are 11th with 9 points.
- 3.Al-Ahli Jeddah have a significantly better goal difference (+18) than Al Riyadh this season.
- 4.Ivan Toney leads the league scoring with 11 goals in 8 games.
- 5.Trincão has contributed 5 goals and 2 assists this season for Al-Ahli.
- 6.Eduard Spertsyan tops Al-Ahli's assists with 3 in 8 games.
- 7.Al Riyadh's top scorer has only 3 goals in 8 games.
Prediction
Expect Al-Ahli Jeddah to secure a comfortable 4-0 victory over Al Riyadh. The home team's potent attack and solid league standing make this a straightforward call, with Ivan Toney likely to be a key figure on the scoresheet.
Player Insights
Standout players Fipster expects to impact the match — curated highlights, not full squad lists
Home — Al-Ahli Jeddah
Away — Al Riyadh
No standout top scorers flagged for Al Riyadh
The verdict
With full squads available and no injury concerns, Al-Ahli Jeddah should maintain their momentum and deliver a commanding win. Al Riyadh will need to regroup quickly after this heavy defeat to improve their league position.
Prediction generated 13 Oct 2026, 09:27 UTC · Fipster Model v1.163
Form as the teams went into this match — excludes this result and anything since.
Team Comparison
Season shape — attack, defence, form, clean sheets & win rate
Home vs Away comparison
Goal difference in each of the last few fixtures — above the line is a net win, below is a net loss
Season comparison
Goals scored & conceded, goal difference and clean sheets across the season
Halftime Performance
What each side does once the whistle goes for half time
Streaks
Recent-form runs — each side’s most-recent game meets in the middle
Head to Head
Penalty confirmed
Toney
Penalty
Spertsyan
Assist: Yaslam
Trincão
Assist: Yaslam
Al Jayzani
M. Mohammed
Yellow Card
Penalty confirmed
Mohammed Al Khaibari
Yellow Card
Toney
Penalty
Bondarenko
Bahri
Leandro Antunes
Atangana Edoa
Galeno
Spertsyan
Yaslam
Yellow Card
Okou
Yaslam
Al Tale
Yellow Card
Naif Masoud
Assist: Feras Al Brikan
Unknown
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Al-Hilal Saudi FC | 10 | 9 | 0 | 1 | +21 | 27 |
| 4 |  Al-Ittihad FC | 10 | 7 | 2 | 1 | +10 | 23 |
| 5 |  Al-Ahli Jeddah | 10 | 7 | 0 | 3 | +14 | 21 |
| 6 |  NEOM | 11 | 6 | 1 | 4 | +7 | 19 |
| 12 |  Al-Hazm | 11 | 2 | 4 | 5 | -4 | 10 |
| 13 |  Al Riyadh | 9 | 2 | 3 | 4 | -9 | 9 |
| 14 |  Al-Fayha | 11 | 1 | 5 | 5 | -7 | 8 |
Match Statistics
Al-Ahli Jeddah
4-2-3-1Starting XI
- 3IbañezD
- 5Mohammed BakorD
- 6V. Atangana EdoaM
- 7TrincãoM
- 8E. SpertsyanM
- 13GalenoM
- 16É. MendyG
- 17I. ToneyF
- 19A. BondarenkoM
- 31Saad YaslamD
- 46Rayane Hamidou
Substitutes
- 1Abdulrahman Al SanbiG
- 2Zakaria Al HawsawiD
- 9Feras Al BrikanF
- 11Meshal Al MutairiM
- 21Abdullah RadifF
- 30Ziyad Al JohaniM
- 47Waheb SalehF
- 66Naif MasoudM
- 72S. Al JadanyG
Al Riyadh
4-4-2Starting XI
- 2Sultan AlessaD
- 10T. OkouM
- 11H. Al Ali
- 12Sulaiman HazaziD
- 14Essam BahriM
- 22V. LekhalM
- 26R. AbascalD
- 67Mohammed Al KhaibariD
- 77Leandro AntunesF
- 79F. Al JayzaniM
- 82M. BorjanG
Substitutes
- 5Hossam MajrashiD
- 13Osama Al BowardiD
- 16Faisal Al SobhiM
- 17Hussain Al-Raqwani
- 19A. M. MohammedM
- 24A. Al TaleM
- 29S. MatarM
- 87Marzouq TambaktiD
- 97Emad FidaG
Al-Ahli Jeddah
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Francisco Trincão | M | 90 | 8.2 | 1 | — | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1/1 |
| Saad Yaslam Balobaid | D | 83 | 8.2 | — | 2 | — | — | 3 | 1/2 |
| Eduard Spertsyan | M | 75 | 8.2 | 1 | — | 1 | 1 | — | 1/1 |
| Rayan Hamed | D | 90 | 8.2 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Roger Ibañez | D | 90 | 7.7 | — | — | — | — | — | 0/1 |
| Ivan Toney | F | 90 | 7.3 | 2 | — | 4 | 3 | 2 | — |
| Mohammed Sulaiman Bakor | D | 90 | 7.0 | — | — | — | — | 1 | 1/2 |
| Edouard Mendy(C) | G | 90 | 6.9 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wenderson Galeno | M | 75 | 6.7 | — | — | 2 | 1 | — | 0/2 |
| Artem Bondarenko | M | 62 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | — | 0/1 |
| Valentin Atangana Edoa | M | 75 | 6.2 | — | — | — | — | — | 0/3 |
| Substitutes | |||||||||
| Salman Al-Jadani | G | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Meshal Al Mutairi | M | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Abdullah Radif | F | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Abdulrahman Al Sanbi | G | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Saleh Abu Al-Shamat | F | 15 | 7.7 | — | — | — | — | 2 | — |
| Naif Masoud | M | 15 | 7.6 | 1 | — | 1 | 1 | — | — |
| Firas Al-Buraikan | F | 15 | 6.9 | — | 1 | — | — | 1 | — |
| Zakaria Hawsawi | D | 11 | 6.7 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Ziyad Aljohani | M | 28 | 6.6 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Al Riyadh
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Leandro Antunes | F | 69 | 6.7 | — | — | 2 | 1 | 1 | — |
| Fahad Al Jayzani | M | 45 | 6.5 | — | — | 1 | — | — | — |
| Hassan Hashim Al-Ali | F | 89 | 6.3 | — | — | 1 | — | — | — |
| Teddy Okou | M | 81 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | — | 0/3 |
| Essam Bahri | M | 69 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | 1 | 2/2 |
| Victor Lekhal | M | 90 | 5.9 | — | — | — | — | — | 1/2 |
| Sulaiman Hahya Hazazi | D | 90 | 5.9 | — | — | — | — | — | 1/2 |
| Milan Borjan(C) | G | 90 | 5.9 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
| Mohammed Al-Khaibari | D | 90 | 5.7 | — | — | — | — | — | 1/1 |
| Rodrigo Abascal | D | 90 | 5.6 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Sultan Alessa | D | 90 | 5.3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Substitutes | |||||||||
| Emad Fidaa | G | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Faisal Al-Sobhi | M | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Hussam Majrashi | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Osama Al-Boardi | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Salman Matar | M | 1 | — | — | — | 1 | — | — | — |
| Abdulilah Al Tale | M | 9 | 6.5 | — | — | — | — | — | 0/1 |
| Hussain Al-Raqwani | F | 21 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | 1 | 0/1 |
| Marzouq Tambakti | D | 21 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Hussain Al-Shurafa | M | 45 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | — | 0/1 |
Prediction Q&A
- Who did Fipster predict to win Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al Riyadh?
- Fipster's AI model predicted Al-Ahli Jeddah to win against Al Riyadh.
- What score did Fipster predict for Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al Riyadh?
- Fipster predicted a final score of Al-Ahli Jeddah 4–0 Al Riyadh.
- What were the win probabilities for Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al Riyadh?
- Fipster's model gave Al-Ahli Jeddah a 95% chance of winning, Al Riyadh a 2% chance, and a 3% chance of a draw.
- How confident was Fipster in this prediction?
- Fipster's model assigned this prediction 95% confidence — a high-confidence call.