Ajax vs NEC Nijmegen
Ajax and NEC share spoils in early goal thriller
Arokodare and Chery trade first-half strikes to settle for a draw.
Ajax looked set for a home win after T. Arokodare's early strike in the 7th minute, but NEC Nijmegen's T. Chery levelled from the penalty spot just 12 minutes later. The 1-1 draw defied Fipster's low-confidence prediction of a narrow Ajax victory, leaving both sides to settle for a point in this Eredivisie encounter.
Outcome probability
Ajax and NEC Nijmegen are set for an entertaining clash in the Regular Season - 8, with both sides boasting attacking talent and a history of high-scoring matches.
Match factors
Ajax's creative midfield dominance
Oscar Gloukh's 4 assists in last 5 games provide Ajax a creative edge to unlock NEC's defense
Julian Brandt's scoring form
Brandt's 4 goals in 7 games, including 3 in last 5, make him Ajax's most reliable scorer
Toluwalase Arokodare's recent impact
Arokodare scored 3 goals in 6 games with high shot volume, showing rising form for Ajax
NEC missing Emre Mor weakens attack
Mor's confirmed absence reduces NEC's attacking creativity and assist potential
NEC's reliance on Tjaronn Chery for goals
Chery leads NEC with 3 goals in 5 games, key to their scoring chances against Ajax
The context
Ajax currently sit 5th in the league with 14 points from 7 games, showing strong form and a healthy +12 goal difference. NEC Nijmegen are 11th with 7 points from 6 games and a goal difference of -1. Historically, Ajax have dominated head-to-head encounters, winning 13 of 20 meetings against NEC, with matches averaging 3.6 goals, highlighting an attacking mindset from both sides.
Key insights
Oscar Gloukh
Ajax
Gloukh's 4 assists in the last 5 games give Ajax a creative edge to unlock NEC's defence.
Eredivisie 26/274 assists in 7 apps, 0.57 assists/game
Julian Brandt
Ajax
Brandt's 4 goals in 7 games, including 3 in the last 5, make him Ajax's most reliable scorer.
Eredivisie 26/274 goals in 7 apps, 0.57 goals/game
Toluwalase Arokodare
Ajax
Arokodare's 3 goals in 6 games and high shot volume show his rising form for Ajax.
Eredivisie 26/273 goals in 6 apps, 0.5 goals/game
Tjaronn Chefren Chery
NEC Nijmegen
Chery leads NEC with 3 goals in 5 games and is key to their scoring chances against Ajax.
Eredivisie 26/273 goals in 5 apps, 0.6 goals/game
Analysis
Ajax's creative midfield, led by Oscar Gloukh with 4 assists in the last 5 games, provides a significant edge in unlocking NEC's defence. Julian Brandt is the key goal threat for Ajax, netting 4 times in 7 appearances, including 3 in the last 5 games. Toluwalase Arokodare's recent form adds further firepower. NEC rely heavily on Tjaronn Chefren Chery, their top scorer with 3 goals in 5 games, to challenge Ajax's defence. The absence of Emre Mor weakens NEC's attacking options, making their task tougher. Expect a close, high-scoring game with both teams pushing forward.
Key facts
- 1.Ajax have won 13 of 20 head-to-head matches against NEC Nijmegen.
- 2.Head-to-head matches average 3.6 total goals, indicating attacking play.
- 3.Ajax rank 5th with 14 points from 7 games; NEC Nijmegen 11th with 7 points from 6 games.
- 4.Ajax have a +12 goal difference compared to NEC Nijmegen's -1.
- 5.Julian Brandt leads Ajax scoring with 4 goals in 7 games.
- 6.Oscar Gloukh has provided 4 assists in the last 5 games for Ajax.
- 7.NEC's Tjaronn Chefren Chery is their top scorer with 3 goals in 5 games.
Prediction
The prediction favours a narrow home win for Ajax, with a thrilling 4-3 scoreline the most likely outcome. While the match promises goals galore, Ajax's superior form and attacking creativity should just edge them past NEC Nijmegen in this encounter.
Player Insights
Standout players Fipster expects to impact the match — curated highlights, not full squad lists
Home — Ajax
Away — NEC Nijmegen
The verdict
In what promises to be a rollercoaster of a match, Ajax's attacking prowess and home advantage should see them through a tight contest against NEC Nijmegen. Fans can look forward to a feast of goals and end-to-end action.
Prediction generated 20 Sep 2026, 16:37 UTC · Fipster Model v1.160
Form as the teams went into this match — excludes this result and anything since.
Team Comparison
Season shape — attack, defence, form, clean sheets & win rate
Home vs Away comparison
Goal difference in each of the last few fixtures — above the line is a net win, below is a net loss
Season comparison
Goals scored & conceded, goal difference and clean sheets across the season
Halftime Performance
What each side does once the whistle goes for half time
Streaks
Recent-form runs — each side’s most-recent game meets in the middle
Head to Head
Arokodare
Assist: Mokio
Mokio
Yellow Card
Chery
Penalty
Linssen
Yellow Card
Brás
Yellow Card
Tsygankov
Gloukh
Ouazane
Yellow Card
Schuurs
Arokodare
Linssen
Rosa
Wijndal
Chery
Kers
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Feyenoord | 8 | 6 | 2 | 0 | +20 | 20 |
| 4 |  Twente | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | +8 | 17 |
| 5 |  Ajax | 8 | 4 | 3 | 1 | +12 | 15 |
| 6 |  Groningen | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | +6 | 14 |
| 10 |  Heerenveen | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 9 |
| 11 |  NEC Nijmegen | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | -1 | 9 |
| 12 |  Cambuur | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -8 | 8 |
Match Statistics
Ajax
4-3-3Starting XI
- 1M. ter StegenG
- 2Lucas RosaD
- 4S. AmrabatM
- 5O. WijndalD
- 6T. KehrerD
- 8J. BrandtM
- 10O. GloukhF
- 11V. TsygankovF
- 15Y. BaasD
- 24J. MokioM
- 99T. ArokodareF
Substitutes
- 7S. AdingraF
- 18D. KlaassenM
- 20O. EdvardsenF
- 21Jofre TorrentsD
- 26M. PaesG
- 28Y. BissoumaM
- 30A. BouwmanD
- 36D. JanseD
- 38Marcos LeonardoF
- 43Rayane BounidaF
- 51C. SetfordG
- 68A. OuazaneM
NEC Nijmegen
3-4-2-1Starting XI
- 1G. CrettazG
- 4P. SchuursD
- 6D. NejašmićM
- 9T. CheryM
- 10D. TadićM
- 20N. LebretonM
- 21T. StormM
- 24Deveron FonvilleD
- 30B. LinssenF
- 34Kevin KersM
- 73Gabriel BrásD
Substitutes
- 5M. BakkerD
- 8I. Hansen-AarøenM
- 11W. WillumssonM
- 12N. PolsterG
- 19Adam TahauiF
- 22A. KaplanD
- 35Jamiro MonteiroM
- 36Freek EntiusG
- 42Y. MoslihD
- 66Almugera Raouf Mohammed KabarD
- 99Clement BischoffF
Ajax
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| T. Arokodare | F | 73 | 7.9 | 1 | — | 2 | 1 | — | 0/1 |
| J. Brandt | M | 90 | 7.2 | — | — | 3 | — | 8 | 1/4 |
| S. Adingra | F | 30 | 7.1 | — | — | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1/2 |
| S. Amrabat | M | 90 | 7.1 | — | — | 1 | — | 1 | — |
| J. Mokio | M | 90 | 7.0 | — | 1 | 1 | — | 1 | — |
| O. Gloukh | F | 60 | 6.9 | — | — | 4 | 1 | — | 6/8 |
| Y. Baas | D | 90 | 6.9 | — | — | 1 | — | 1 | 0/1 |
| T. Kehrer | D | 90 | 6.8 | — | — | — | — | — | 0/1 |
| V. Tsygankov | F | 60 | 6.7 | — | — | — | — | — | 1/1 |
| Lucas Rosa | D | 73 | 6.6 | — | — | 1 | — | — | 1/1 |
| Marcos Leonardo | F | 17 | 6.6 | — | — | 1 | — | — | — |
| O. Wijndal | D | 80 | 6.5 | — | — | — | — | 1 | 1/1 |
| M. ter Stegen | G | 90 | 6.4 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| A. Bouwman | D | 17 | 6.4 | — | — | — | — | — | 1/1 |
| A. Ouazane | M | 30 | 6.2 | — | — | 3 | 2 | — | 4/4 |
| D. Klaassen | M | 10 | 6.2 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| O. Edvardsen | F | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| M. Paes | G | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Jofre Torrents | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Y. Bissouma | M | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| D. Janse | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Rayane Bounida | F | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| C. Setford | G | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
NEC Nijmegen
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G. Crettaz | G | 90 | 7.1 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| T. Chery | M | 82 | 6.8 | 1 | — | 1 | 1 | 1 | — |
| P. Schuurs | D | 72 | 6.7 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| D. Tadić | M | 90 | 6.6 | — | — | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2/2 |
| T. Storm | M | 90 | 6.5 | — | — | 1 | — | 1 | 1/2 |
| Kevin Kers | M | 82 | 6.4 | — | — | 3 | — | — | 0/1 |
| N. Lebreton | M | 90 | 6.4 | — | — | 1 | — | — | — |
| Deveron Fonville | D | 90 | 6.4 | — | — | — | — | — | 0/1 |
| Jamiro Monteiro | M | 8 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| W. Willumsson | M | 8 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | — | 1/1 |
| M. Bakker | D | 17 | 6.2 | — | — | — | — | — | 0/2 |
| D. Nejašmić | M | 90 | 6.2 | — | — | — | — | 1 | 1/2 |
| B. Linssen | F | 73 | 6.1 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Gabriel Brás | D | 90 | 6.0 | — | — | 1 | — | — | — |
| A. Kaplan | D | 18 | 5.9 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| N. Polster | G | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| I. Hansen-Aarøen | M | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Almugera Raouf Mohammed Kabar | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Clement Bischoff | F | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Adam Tahaui | F | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Freek Entius | G | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Y. Moslih | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Prediction Q&A
- Who did Fipster predict to win Ajax vs NEC Nijmegen?
- Fipster's AI model predicted Ajax to win against NEC Nijmegen.
- What score did Fipster predict for Ajax vs NEC Nijmegen?
- Fipster predicted a final score of Ajax 4–3 NEC Nijmegen.
- What were the win probabilities for Ajax vs NEC Nijmegen?
- Fipster's model gave Ajax a 35% chance of winning, NEC Nijmegen a 32% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw.
- How confident was Fipster in this prediction?
- Fipster's model assigned this prediction 35% confidence — a low-confidence call.