Ajax vs Groningen
Match recap
Ajax beat Groningen 2–0 in their Eredivisie fixture. Klaassen and Mokio scored for Ajax. Expected-goals data put the chance balance at 1.83 for Ajax versus 0.16 for Groningen. Ajax sit 5th in the Eredivisie table while Groningen are 9th.
Analysis
The semi-final showdown between Ajax and Groningen promises to be a thrilling encounter, with Ajax holding the upper hand thanks to their home advantage and superior form this season.
Ajax, playing at home, have a strong historical record against Groningen, winning 15 of their last 20 meetings. Groningen, while competitive, sit lower in the league standings and face an uphill battle to overturn Ajax's dominance.
Ajax's attacking prowess, led by M. Godts who boasts 17 goals and 12 assists this season, combined with solid defensive contributions from Y. Baas and Lucas Rosa, gives them a tactical edge. Groningen's T. van Bergen is in good scoring form, but the absence of key midfielder S. Resink weakens their midfield stability. The predicted 2-1 scoreline reflects a close contest with Ajax likely to maintain a slender lead.
Prediction
Expect Ajax to lead 1-0 at halftime and hold on for a 2-1 victory by fulltime. The match should see around four cards, reflecting a competitive but controlled semi-final atmosphere.
Outcome probability
Key Insights
Godts' Dual Threat at Home
Godts excels in scoring and assisting at home, exploiting Groningen's defense weaknesses.
Defensive Solidity via Baas and Rosa
Baas and Rosa's above-average defensive stats provide Ajax a strong defensive base.
Groningen's Van Bergen in Good Scoring Form
Van Bergen's recent scoring streak poses a threat despite Groningen's away struggles.
Resink's Absence Weakens Groningen Midfield
Missing Resink reduces Groningen's defensive midfield stability and ball recovery.
Ajax's Wide Play Supported by Gaaei and Bounida
Wide players Gaaei and Bounida create chances and crosses, enhancing Ajax's attack variety.
Key Takeaways
In summary, Ajax's home advantage, combined with their superior form and key player contributions, should see them through to the final with a narrow 2-1 win over Groningen.
- Ajax have won 15 of 20 head-to-head matches against Groningen.
- Head-to-head matches average 3.1 total goals, supporting a 2-1 prediction.
- Ajax rank 5th in the league with a better goal difference than Groningen, who are 9th.
- M. Godts leads Ajax with 17 goals and 12 assists this season, excelling at home.
- Groningen's top scorer T. van Bergen has 9 goals, showing good recent form.
- S. Resink's injury weakens Groningen's midfield defensive stability.
- Ajax defenders Y. Baas and Lucas Rosa provide strong defensive stats and solidity.
Player Insights
Standout players Fipster expects to impact the match — curated highlights, not full squad lists
Home — Ajax
Away — Groningen
No standout top scorers flagged for Groningen
Team Comparison
Season shape — attack, defence, form, clean sheets & win rate
Home vs Away comparison
Goal difference in each of the last few fixtures — above the line is a net win, below is a net loss
Season comparison
Goals scored & conceded, goal difference and clean sheets across the season
Halftime Performance
What each side does once the whistle goes for half time
Streaks
Recent-form runs — each side’s most-recent game meets in the middle
Head to Head
Klaassen
Assist: Godts
van Bergen
Peersman
Yellow Card
Mokio
Janse
Yellow Card
Steur
Godts
Yellow Card
van der Werff
Peersman
Hernes
Goal cancelled
Weghorst
Berghuis
Land
Klaassen
Willumsson
Yellow Card
Seuntjens
Yellow Card
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  PSV Eindhoven | 34 | 27 | 3 | 4 | +56 | 84 |
| 4 |  Twente | 34 | 15 | 13 | 6 | +19 | 58 |
| 5 |  Ajax | 34 | 14 | 14 | 6 | +21 | 56 |
| 6 |  Utrecht | 34 | 15 | 8 | 11 | +13 | 53 |
| 8 |  Heerenveen | 34 | 14 | 9 | 11 | +4 | 51 |
| 9 |  Groningen | 34 | 14 | 6 | 14 | +4 | 48 |
| 10 |  Sparta Rotterdam | 34 | 12 | 7 | 15 | -22 | 43 |
Match Statistics
Ajax
4-3-3Starting XI
- 2Lucas RosaD
- 3A. GaaeiD
- 11M. GodtsF
- 15Y. BaasD
- 18D. KlaassenM
- 23S. BerghuisF
- 24J. MokioM
- 25W. WeghorstF
- 26M. PaesG
- 30A. BouwmanD
- 48Sean SteurM
Substitutes
- 6Y. RegeerM
- 7M. CarrizoF
- 9K. DolbergF
- 10O. GloukhM
- 19Don-Angelo Christoffel Annum-Assamoah KonaduF
- 32T. TomiyasuD
- 43Rayane BounidaF
- 45R. van de PavertD
- 50M. MuzunguD
- 52P. ReversonG
- 58V. van der VeldeG
- 64K. KasanwirjoD
Groningen
4-2-3-1Starting XI
- 1E. VaessenG
- 3T. BlokzijlD
- 4D. JanseD
- 5M. RenteD
- 7T. HernesM
- 8T. de JongeM
- 14J. SchreudersM
- 17D. van der WerffM
- 18T. LandM
- 26T. van BergenF
- 43M. PeersmanD
Substitutes
- 2Wouter PrinsD
- 9B. WillumssonF
- 13L. ŠtubljarG
- 15E. van der LaanD
- 16Tyrique MerceraD
- 20M. SeuntjensM
- 21H. JurjusG
- 22Sven BoulandD
- 27Rui MendesF
- 34R. MetuF
- 44Besnik MashukuM
- 48Petrit PreniqiD
Ajax
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Davy Klaassen(C) | M | 84 | 8.7 | 1 | — | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1/2 |
| Mika Godts | F | 90 | 8.7 | — | 1 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 1/5 |
| Jorthy Mokio | M | 90 | 7.6 | 1 | — | 1 | 1 | — | 0/1 |
| Lucas Rosa | D | 90 | 7.5 | — | — | — | — | — | 2/5 |
| Maarten Paes | G | 90 | 7.2 | — | — | — | — | — | 1/1 |
| Sean Steur | M | 62 | 7.2 | — | — | — | — | 2 | 1/2 |
| Steven Berghuis | F | 71 | 7.0 | — | — | 1 | — | — | 1/3 |
| Youri Baas | D | 90 | 7.0 | — | — | — | — | — | 1/1 |
| Anton Gaaei | D | 90 | 6.9 | — | — | — | — | 2 | 0/1 |
| Wout Weghorst | F | 71 | 6.5 | — | — | 2 | 2 | — | — |
| Aaron Bouwman | D | 90 | 6.3 | — | — | 1 | — | — | 1/1 |
| Substitutes | |||||||||
| Don-Angelo Konadu | F | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Valentijn van der Velde | G | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Kennynho Kasanwirjo | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Ryan van de Pavert | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Marvyn Muzungu | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Oscar Gloukh | M | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Paul Reverson | G | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Rayane Bounida | F | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Kasper Dolberg | F | 19 | 7.0 | — | — | — | — | 1 | 0/1 |
| Takehiro Tomiyasu | D | 11 | 6.9 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Youri Regeer | M | 28 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Maher Carrizo | F | 19 | 6.2 | — | — | 1 | — | — | 1/1 |
Groningen
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tika de Jonge | M | 90 | 7.2 | — | — | 1 | — | — | — |
| Etienne Vaessen | G | 90 | 6.9 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Thijmen Blokzijl | D | 90 | 6.7 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
| Tygo Land | M | 77 | 6.7 | — | — | — | — | 2 | 0/1 |
| Jorg Schreuders | M | 90 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Dies Janse | D | 90 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | — | 0/1 |
| David van der Werff | M | 67 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | — | 2/2 |
| Travis Hernes | M | 67 | 6.2 | — | — | — | — | — | 1/2 |
| Thom van Bergen | F | 32 | 6.2 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Marvin Peersman | D | 67 | 6.0 | — | — | — | — | — | 0/1 |
| Marco Rente(C) | D | 90 | 5.9 | — | — | — | — | — | 0/1 |
| Substitutes | |||||||||
| Elvis Van der Laan | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Tyrique Mercera | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Robin Kelder | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Hidde Jurjus | G | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Sven Bouland | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Jismerai Dillema | M | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Lovro Štubljar | G | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wouter Prins | D | 23 | 6.9 | — | — | — | — | — | 1/1 |
| Ryan Metu | F | 23 | 6.7 | — | — | — | — | 1 | 1/2 |
| Mats Seuntjens | M | 23 | 6.7 | — | — | 1 | — | — | 0/1 |
| Rui Mendes | F | 13 | 6.5 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
| Brynjólfur Darri Willumsson | F | 58 | 6.3 | — | — | 1 | 1 | — | 0/2 |