Ajax vs Excelsior
Ajax and Excelsior share spoils in lively draw
A seesaw battle ends 2-2 as Excelsior deny Ajax a home win.
Ajax looked set to take control with J. Brandt's strike before the break, but Excelsior hit back with L. Hartjes equalising in stoppage time of the first half. After the break, A. Sliti put Excelsior ahead, only for T. Arokodare to restore parity shortly after. The 2-2 draw defied Fipster's high-confidence prediction of an Excelsior win, proving the home side's resilience on the day.
Outcome probability
Ajax and Excelsior face off in what promises to be a goal-laden encounter. Both sides sit close in the league standings, but the prediction leans towards an away win with plenty of goals to entertain the fans.
Match factors
Excelsior's prolific striker David Garden leads scoring
Garden's 3 goals in 1 game and strong recent form give Excelsior a key attacking edge
Oscar Gloukh's creative form fuels Ajax's attack
Gloukh's 3 assists in last 5 games and high rating indicate key playmaker role
Ajax missing key defender A. Bouwman (out) weakens defense
Bouwman's absence reduces defensive passing and stability, increasing risk at back
Excelsior's Yegoian combines scoring and assisting threat
Yegoian's 2 goals and 4 assists in 6 games make him a dual threat in attack
The context
Ajax currently hold 10 points from 5 games, placing them 5th in the league, while Excelsior are just behind in 6th with 10 points from 6 games. Historically, Ajax have dominated their head-to-head meetings, winning 14 of 20 matches, but Excelsior have shown they can find the net, with these fixtures averaging 4 goals per game.
Key insights
David Garden
Excelsior
Garden's 3 goals in 1 game and strong recent form give Excelsior a key attacking edge.
Eredivisie 26/273 goals in 1 game
Oscar Gloukh
Ajax
Gloukh's 3 assists in last 5 games and high rating indicate key playmaker role.
Eredivisie 26/273 assists in last 5 games
Irakli Yegoian
Excelsior
Yegoian's 2 goals and 4 assists in 6 games make him a dual threat in attack.
Eredivisie 26/272 goals and 4 assists in 6 games
Analysis
Excelsior's attacking threat is spearheaded by David Garden, who boasts an impressive 3 goals in a single game this season, making him a key player to watch. Meanwhile, Ajax's creativity is fuelled by Oscar Gloukh, who has provided 3 assists in the last 5 games and carries a high match rating. However, Ajax will miss key defender A. Bouwman, which could weaken their defensive stability. Excelsior's Irakli Yegoian also poses a dual threat with 2 goals and 4 assists, adding to their offensive firepower. The prediction of a 4-2 away win aligns with these attacking strengths and the expected high-scoring nature of the match.
Key facts
- 1.Ajax are 5th in the league with 10 points from 5 games (W3 D1 L1).
- 2.Excelsior are 6th with 10 points from 6 games (W3 D1 L2).
- 3.In 20 head-to-head matches, Ajax have won 14, Excelsior 1, with 5 draws.
- 4.Head-to-head matches average 4.0 total goals.
- 5.David Garden scored 3 goals in a single game this season.
- 6.Oscar Gloukh has 3 assists in the last 5 games for Ajax.
- 7.Irakli Yegoian has 2 goals and 4 assists in 6 games for Excelsior.
- 8.Ajax's key defender A. Bouwman is out, weakening their defence.
Prediction
Expect Excelsior to edge out Ajax with a 4-2 victory. The halftime scoreline of 1-2 suggests an early lead for the visitors, who will likely maintain their momentum to secure the win. The match is also predicted to see around 4 cards, indicating a competitive and intense battle on the pitch.
Player Insights
Standout players Fipster expects to impact the match — curated highlights, not full squad lists
Home — Ajax
Away — Excelsior
The verdict
This fixture promises goals and excitement, with Excelsior's attacking talents potentially outshining Ajax's home advantage. Fans should brace for a lively contest where the visitors could claim a memorable win.
Prediction generated 15 Sep 2026, 19:50 UTC · Fipster Model v1.158
Form as the teams went into this match — excludes this result and anything since.
Team Comparison
Season shape — attack, defence, form, clean sheets & win rate
Home vs Away comparison
Goal difference in each of the last few fixtures — above the line is a net win, below is a net loss
Season comparison
Goals scored & conceded, goal difference and clean sheets across the season
Halftime Performance
What each side does once the whistle goes for half time
Streaks
Recent-form runs — each side’s most-recent game meets in the middle
Head to Head
Caio Henrique
Brandt
Assist: Dolberg
Plug
Yellow Card
Hartjes
Tsygankov
Sliti
Assist: Yegoian
Dolberg
Arokodare
Assist: Gloukh
Eric Emanuel da Silva Moreira
Þorsteinsson
Sliti
Mokio
Klaassen
Yegoian
Yellow Card
Garden
Gloukh
Yellow Card
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  AZ Alkmaar | 7 | 6 | 1 | 0 | +12 | 19 |
| 4 |  Twente | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | +8 | 16 |
| 5 |  Ajax | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | +12 | 14 |
| 6 |  Fortuna Sittard | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 13 |
| 7 |  Excelsior | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | +6 | 11 |
| 8 |  Groningen | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | +2 | 11 |
Match Statistics
Ajax
4-3-3Starting XI
- 1M. ter StegenG
- 3A. GaaeiD
- 6T. KehrerD
- 8J. BrandtM
- 9K. DolbergF
- 10O. GloukhF
- 11V. TsygankovF
- 12Caio HenriqueD
- 15Y. BaasD
- 18D. KlaassenM
- 24J. MokioM
Substitutes
- 2Lucas RosaD
- 4S. AmrabatM
- 5O. WijndalD
- 20O. EdvardsenF
- 21Jofre TorrentsD
- 26M. PaesG
- 36D. JanseD
- 38Marcos LeonardoF
- 43Rayane BounidaF
- 51C. SetfordG
- 68A. OuazaneM
- 99T. ArokodareF
Excelsior
4-3-3Starting XI
- 1S. van GasselG
- 2Eric Emanuel da Silva MoreiraD
- 3R. MeissenM
- 4C. WidellD
- 7A. SlitiF
- 8I. YegoianM
- 14J. PlugD
- 15S. JanssenD
- 19D. GardenF
- 20L. HartjesM
- 30Á. ÞorsteinssonF
Substitutes
- 6D. van VianenM
- 9Mario DomínguezF
- 11A. JahanbakhshF
- 12K. BosF
- 16Celton BiaiG
- 18V. SulzbacherM
- 21I. Silva TimasF
- 22O. TurayD
- 24Giulliano CairoM
- 28N. GroenF
Ajax
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Brandt | M | 90 | 8.2 | 1 | — | 3 | 1 | 6 | — |
| T. Arokodare | F | 28 | 8.2 | 1 | — | 9 | 1 | — | — |
| O. Gloukh | F | 90 | 7.7 | — | 1 | 7 | 3 | 3 | 5/5 |
| A. Gaaei | D | 90 | 7.5 | — | — | 5 | 1 | 3 | 2/2 |
| O. Edvardsen | F | 29 | 7.1 | — | — | — | — | 3 | 0/1 |
| O. Wijndal | D | 67 | 7.0 | — | — | — | — | 4 | — |
| K. Dolberg | F | 62 | 6.9 | — | 1 | 2 | — | 2 | 1/1 |
| T. Kehrer | D | 90 | 6.8 | — | — | 1 | 1 | — | — |
| J. Mokio | M | 76 | 6.5 | — | — | 1 | — | 2 | — |
| Y. Baas | D | 90 | 6.5 | — | — | — | — | — | 1/2 |
| A. Ouazane | M | 13 | 6.4 | — | — | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2/2 |
| D. Klaassen | M | 77 | 6.4 | — | — | 2 | — | — | 1/1 |
| V. Tsygankov | F | 61 | 6.3 | — | — | 1 | — | 2 | 0/1 |
| S. Amrabat | M | 14 | 6.2 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
| Caio Henrique | D | 23 | 6.1 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| M. ter Stegen | G | 90 | 6.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| C. Setford | G | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Marcos Leonardo | F | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Lucas Rosa | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| M. Paes | G | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Jofre Torrents | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| D. Janse | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Rayane Bounida | F | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Excelsior
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A. Sliti | F | 71 | 8.0 | 1 | — | 3 | 1 | — | — |
| L. Hartjes | M | 90 | 7.4 | 1 | — | 1 | 1 | — | 1/2 |
| S. van Gassel | G | 90 | 7.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| I. Yegoian | M | 90 | 6.8 | — | 1 | — | — | 2 | 4/7 |
| K. Bos | F | 25 | 6.8 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| C. Widell | D | 90 | 6.7 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
| A. Jahanbakhsh | F | 19 | 6.5 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| I. Silva Timas | F | 19 | 6.5 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| D. Garden | F | 85 | 6.4 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Á. Þorsteinsson | F | 71 | 6.4 | — | — | — | — | — | 0/2 |
| Eric Emanuel da Silva Moreira | D | 65 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | — | 2/2 |
| J. Plug | D | 90 | 6.2 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| S. Janssen | D | 90 | 6.1 | — | — | — | — | — | 1/2 |
| Mario Domínguez | F | 5 | 6.1 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| R. Meissen | M | 90 | 5.9 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| V. Sulzbacher | M | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| N. Groen | F | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Giulliano Cairo | M | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Celton Biai | G | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| O. Turay | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| D. van Vianen | M | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Prediction Q&A
- Who did Fipster predict to win Ajax vs Excelsior?
- Fipster's AI model predicted Excelsior to win against Ajax.
- What score did Fipster predict for Ajax vs Excelsior?
- Fipster predicted a final score of Ajax 2–4 Excelsior.
- What were the win probabilities for Ajax vs Excelsior?
- Fipster's model gave Ajax a 6% chance of winning, Excelsior a 88% chance, and a 6% chance of a draw.
- How confident was Fipster in this prediction?
- Fipster's model assigned this prediction 88% confidence — a high-confidence call.