Ajax vs AZ Alkmaar
Match recap
Ajax beat AZ Alkmaar 1–0 in their Eredivisie fixture. Arokodare scored for Ajax. Expected-goals data put the chance balance at 0.70 for Ajax versus 1.11 for AZ Alkmaar. Ajax sit 3rd in the Eredivisie table while AZ Alkmaar are 5th.
Outcome probability
Ajax and AZ Alkmaar are set for a pulsating regular season encounter that promises goals and drama. Both sides sit near the top of the table, making this a crucial fixture in their campaign.
Match factors
Ajax's Midfield Scoring Edge
Ajax midfielders Brandt and Klaassen have strong scoring form, likely to exploit AZ's defense
AZ's Defensive Workload
Mateo Chávez's high tackle count indicates AZ's defensive intensity, key to disrupting Ajax attacks
Brandt's Recent Scoring Surge
Brandt scored 4 goals in last 5 games, showing peak form for Ajax
Absence of Kasper Dolberg Weakens Ajax Attack
Dolberg's knee injury sidelines a key attacker and assister, reducing Ajax's offensive options
AZ Missing Hornkamp Limits Attacking Depth
Hornkamp's confirmed absence reduces AZ's forward options, impacting goal threat
The context
Ajax currently hold second place with 21 points from 10 games, just a whisker ahead of AZ Alkmaar who are third with 20 points from 9 matches. Historically, AZ have had the upper hand in their head-to-heads, winning 11 of the 20 meetings compared to Ajax's 5, with 4 draws. This season, Ajax boast a superior goal difference (+16) compared to AZ's +10, hinting at their attacking prowess.
Key insights
Julian Brandt
Ajax
Brandt's recent scoring surge makes him a key offensive threat for Ajax at home.
Eredivisie 26/276 goals in 9 apps, 0.8 avg last 5
Oscar Gloukh
Ajax
Gloukh's creativity and assist rate bolster Ajax's attacking options.
Eredivisie 26/274 assists in 9 apps, 0.4 avg last 5
Ro-Zangelo Daal
AZ Alkmaar
Daal is AZ's top scorer and a consistent threat from midfield.
Eredivisie 26/275 goals in 9 apps, 0.5 avg last 10
- M
Mateo Chávez García
AZ Alkmaar
Chávez's defensive work rate is crucial for AZ's efforts to contain Ajax.
Eredivisie 26/2727 tackles in 9 games, 53.6% duel win rate
Analysis
The midfield battle will be fascinating, with Ajax's Julian Brandt in fine form, netting 6 goals in 9 appearances and averaging 0.8 goals in his last 5 games. His creativity is complemented by Oscar Gloukh, who leads Ajax with 4 assists. On the other side, AZ's Ro-Zangelo Daal is their top scorer with 5 goals, and Mateo Chávez García's defensive work rate will be key to disrupting Ajax's rhythm. Both teams have injury concerns; Ajax miss Kasper Dolberg, while AZ are without Hornkamp, which could slightly blunt their attacking options.
Key facts
- 1.Ajax are 2nd in the league with 21 points from 10 games (W6 D3 L1).
- 2.AZ Alkmaar are 3rd with 20 points from 9 games (W6 D2 L1).
- 3.In 20 head-to-head matches, AZ Alkmaar lead with 11 wins to Ajax's 5, with 4 draws.
- 4.Ajax have a better goal difference (+16) than AZ Alkmaar (+10) this season.
- 5.Julian Brandt has scored 6 goals in 9 games for Ajax, including 0.8 goals per game in the last 5.
- 6.Ro-Zangelo Daal is AZ's top scorer with 5 goals in 9 appearances.
- 7.Oscar Gloukh leads Ajax with 4 assists in 9 games.
- 8.Mateo Chávez García has made 27 tackles in 9 games, highlighting AZ's defensive effort.
Prediction
The forecast is for a thrilling 4-3 win for Ajax after a closely contested first half ending 1-1. The match is expected to be a goal fest with both sides pushing hard, but Ajax's home advantage and sharper goal difference might just tip the scales in their favour. However, the narrow margin and high scoreline reflect a finely balanced contest.
Player Insights
Standout players Fipster expects to impact the match — curated highlights, not full squad lists
Home — Ajax
Away — AZ Alkmaar
The verdict
All in all, expect an entertaining spectacle with plenty of goals and end-to-end action. While Ajax are predicted to come out on top, AZ Alkmaar will not make it easy, promising a match that could keep fans on the edge of their seats until the final whistle.
Prediction generated 25 Oct 2026, 20:53 UTC · Fipster Model v1.165
Form as the teams went into this match — excludes this result and anything since.
Team Comparison
Season shape — attack, defence, form, clean sheets & win rate
Home vs Away comparison
Goal difference in each of the last few fixtures — above the line is a net win, below is a net loss
Season comparison
Goals scored & conceded, goal difference and clean sheets across the season
Halftime Performance
What each side does once the whistle goes for half time
Streaks
Recent-form runs — each side’s most-recent game meets in the middle
Head to Head
Arokodare
Assist: Ouazane
Patati
Yellow Card
Ouazane
Yellow Card
Brandt
de Wit
Yellow Card
Goes
Ouazane
Byskov
Klaassen
Mokio
Arokodare
Dijkstra
de Wit
Schouten
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  PSV Eindhoven | 12 | 8 | 2 | 2 | +25 | 26 |
| 2 |  Feyenoord | 12 | 7 | 4 | 1 | +19 | 25 |
| 3 |  Ajax | 12 | 7 | 4 | 1 | +17 | 25 |
| 4 |  Twente | 12 | 7 | 3 | 2 | +18 | 24 |
| 5 |  AZ Alkmaar | 12 | 7 | 2 | 3 | +8 | 23 |
| 6 |  Heerenveen | 12 | 6 | 3 | 3 | +8 | 21 |
Match Statistics
Ajax
4-3-3Starting XI
- 1M. ter StegenG
- 2Lucas RosaD
- 4S. AmrabatM
- 5O. WijndalD
- 8J. BrandtM
- 15Y. BaasD
- 18D. KlaassenF
- 24J. MokioM
- 30A. BouwmanD
- 68A. OuazaneF
- 99T. ArokodareF
Substitutes
- 6T. KehrerD
- 10O. GloukhM
- 17D. BlindD
- 21Jofre TorrentsD
- 23S. BerghuisF
- 26M. PaesG
- 28Y. BissoumaM
- 36D. JanseD
- 38Marcos LeonardoF
- 43Rayane BounidaF
- 49D. PugnoF
- 67Mohamed AbdallaM
AZ Alkmaar
4-2-3-1Starting XI
- 3W. GoesD
- 4L. SchoutenD
- 6P. KoopmeinersM
- 7Weslley PatatiM
- 9M. MeerdinkF
- 11R. DaalM
- 17V. ByskovM
- 21D. KwakmanM
- 22E. DijkstraD
- 28J. De BusserG
- 34M. de WitD
Substitutes
- 1R. Owusu-OduroG
- 2S. MaikumaD
- 5M. ChávezD
- 8J. ClasieM
- 14C. StengsM
- 18B. KovacsF
- 20A. NataliD
- 29W. HoedtD
- 30D. KasiusD
- 75H. de WitM
Ajax
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| T. Arokodare | F | 74 | 8.2 | 1 | — | 2 | 1 | 1 | 4/5 |
| M. ter Stegen | G | 90 | 7.8 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Y. Baas | D | 90 | 7.7 | — | — | — | — | 1 | 0/1 |
| O. Wijndal | D | 90 | 7.6 | — | — | — | — | — | 1/1 |
| J. Brandt | M | 38 | 7.5 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
| A. Bouwman | D | 90 | 7.3 | — | — | 1 | — | — | 0/1 |
| Lucas Rosa | D | 90 | 7.2 | — | — | — | — | — | 0/1 |
| S. Amrabat | M | 90 | 7.2 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| D. Blind | D | 16 | 7.0 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
| O. Gloukh | M | 52 | 7.0 | — | — | 2 | 1 | — | 2/3 |
| Y. Bissouma | M | 30 | 6.9 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| S. Berghuis | F | 16 | 6.8 | — | — | — | — | 2 | — |
| A. Ouazane | F | 60 | 6.8 | — | 1 | 2 | — | 1 | 2/6 |
| D. Klaassen | F | 60 | 6.6 | — | — | — | — | — | 1/2 |
| Marcos Leonardo | F | 30 | 6.5 | — | — | 1 | — | — | — |
| J. Mokio | M | 74 | 6.4 | — | — | 1 | — | — | — |
| Jofre Torrents | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| D. Pugno | F | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| D. Janse | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Rayane Bounida | F | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| M. Paes | G | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| T. Kehrer | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Mohamed Abdalla | M | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
AZ Alkmaar
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D. Kwakman | M | 90 | 7.2 | — | — | 2 | — | 2 | 3/4 |
| W. Hoedt | D | 44 | 7.0 | — | — | 1 | — | 1 | — |
| P. Koopmeiners | M | 90 | 6.9 | — | — | 1 | — | 2 | 1/1 |
| E. Dijkstra | D | 78 | 6.8 | — | — | — | — | 1 | 1/2 |
| J. De Busser | G | 90 | 6.7 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| W. Goes | D | 46 | 6.7 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Weslley Patati | M | 90 | 6.6 | — | — | 3 | 1 | 3 | 0/2 |
| L. Schouten | D | 85 | 6.5 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| C. Stengs | M | 30 | 6.5 | — | — | 1 | — | 2 | — |
| D. Kasius | D | 12 | 6.5 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| V. Byskov | M | 60 | 6.4 | — | — | 2 | 1 | 1 | — |
| M. de Wit | D | 78 | 6.4 | — | — | 1 | — | — | — |
| B. Kovacs | F | 5 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | — | 1/1 |
| M. Meerdink | F | 90 | 6.2 | — | — | 3 | 1 | — | — |
| M. Chávez | D | 12 | 6.1 | — | — | 1 | — | — | — |
| R. Daal | M | 90 | 6.0 | — | — | 2 | 1 | — | 3/4 |
| R. Owusu-Oduro | G | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| A. Natali | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| H. de Wit | M | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| J. Clasie | M | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| S. Maikuma | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Prediction Q&A
- Who did Fipster predict to win Ajax vs AZ Alkmaar?
- Fipster's AI model predicted Ajax to win against AZ Alkmaar.
- What score did Fipster predict for Ajax vs AZ Alkmaar?
- Fipster predicted a final score of Ajax 4–3 AZ Alkmaar.
- What were the win probabilities for Ajax vs AZ Alkmaar?
- Fipster's model gave Ajax a 40% chance of winning, AZ Alkmaar a 30% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw.
- How confident was Fipster in this prediction?
- Fipster's model assigned this prediction 40% confidence — a low-confidence call.