Ajax vs Atalanta
Ajax seals win with late double
Two late strikes from T. Arokodare and A. Ouazane secure a 2-0 victory for Ajax.
Ajax held firm for most of the match before T. Arokodare broke the deadlock in the 87th minute, followed by A. Ouazane adding a late gloss in stoppage time. The 2-0 scoreline reflects a controlled performance with a strong finish. Fipster's prediction of a home win was on the money, though the exact scoreline proved a bit optimistic.
Outcome probability
Ajax and Atalanta face off in what promises to be an entertaining group stage match. Both teams have shown solid form in this competition, but Ajax's attacking prowess at home could be the decisive factor.
Match factors
Ajax's Midfielders in Red Hot Scoring Form
O. Gloukh and D. Klaassen have scored 4 goals each in 5 games, driving Ajax's attack strongly.
Tolu Arokodare's Clinical Finishing
Arokodare has 3 goals in 3 appearances, showing high efficiency and impact off the bench.
Berghuis Leading Ajax's Assist Chart
Berghuis has 3 assists in 5 games, exceeding league average for attackers and key in creating chances.
Ajax's Home Scoring Strength
Ajax averages 4 goals per home game, with key players like Gloukh and Berghuis excelling at home.
Scamacca's Away Goal Threat for Atalanta
Scamacca scored in his only away game, showing potential to break through Ajax's defense.
The context
Ajax have been in fine fettle in this competition, boasting five wins and a draw from six matches, scoring 22 goals and conceding 10. Atalanta, also known as La Dea, have played two matches with one win and one draw, scoring once and keeping a clean sheet.
Key insights
O. Gloukh
Ajax
Gloukh's scoring rate of 0.8 goals per game and excellent home form make him a key threat.
UEFA Europa Conference League 26/274 goals in 5 appearances, 3 at home
D. Klaassen
Ajax
Klaassen's consistent scoring and captaincy role boost Ajax's midfield strength.
UEFA Europa Conference League 26/274 goals in 5 appearances
S. Berghuis
Ajax
Berghuis leads assists with 3 in 5 games, all at home, crucial for creating chances.
UEFA Europa Conference League 26/273 assists in 5 appearances, 3 at home
T. Arokodare
Ajax
Arokodare's perfect goal record in limited appearances highlights his clinical finishing.
UEFA Europa Conference League 26/273 goals in 3 appearances
G. Scamacca
Atalanta
Scamacca's away goal shows potential to challenge Ajax's defence.
UEFA Europa Conference League 26/271 goal in 2 appearances
Analysis
The statistical edge lies with Ajax, who have a strong home scoring record, averaging four goals per game on their turf. Midfielders O. Gloukh and D. Klaassen have been particularly influential, each netting four goals in five games. Atalanta's G. Scamacca poses a threat, having scored in his only away appearance, but the visitors will need to be at their best to contain Ajax's attacking midfield and forward line.
Key facts
- 1.Ajax have won 5 of their 6 matches in this competition, scoring 22 goals.
- 2.Atalanta have played 2 matches with 1 win and 1 draw, conceding no goals.
- 3.Ajax average 4 goals per home game in this competition.
- 4.O. Gloukh has scored 4 goals in 5 games, with 3 at home.
- 5.D. Klaassen has also netted 4 goals in 5 games, showing consistent form.
- 6.S. Berghuis leads Ajax with 3 assists in 5 games, all at home.
- 7.T. Arokodare boasts 3 goals in 3 appearances, showing clinical finishing.
Prediction
Expect a high-scoring affair with Ajax narrowly prevailing 3-2. The halftime scoreline of 2-1 suggests an open and competitive first half, with Ajax's home advantage and attacking depth likely to see them through.
Player Insights
Standout players Fipster expects to impact the match — curated highlights, not full squad lists
Home — Ajax
Away — Atalanta
The verdict
This match should provide plenty of excitement, with both sides eager to impress in the group stage. Ajax's home form and key players' scoring touch give them the edge, but Atalanta will not go quietly in what promises to be a closely fought contest.
Form as the teams went into this match — excludes this result and anything since.
Team Comparison
Season shape — attack, defence, form, clean sheets & win rate
Home vs Away comparison
Goal difference in each of the last few fixtures — above the line is a net win, below is a net loss
Season comparison
Goals scored & conceded, goal difference and clean sheets across the season
Halftime Performance
What each side does once the whistle goes for half time
Streaks
Recent-form runs — each side’s most-recent game meets in the middle
Head to Head
Amrabat
Yellow Card
Klaassen
De Ketelaere
Gloukh
Marcos Leonardo
Samardžić
Yellow Card
Scamacca
Gaetano
Elmas
Zalewski
Yellow Card
Arokodare
Assist: Baas
Brandt
ter Stegen
Yellow Card
Ouazane
Assist: Arokodare
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Panathinaikos | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +5 | 6 |
| 8 |  Mjallby AIF | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | +2 | 4 |
| 9 |  Atalanta | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 3 |
| 27 |  Kairat Almaty | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -4 | 1 |
| 28 |  Ajax | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 29 |  Borac Banja Luka | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
Match Statistics
Ajax
4-2-3-1Starting XI
- 1M. ter StegenG
- 2Lucas RosaD
- 4S. AmrabatM
- 5O. WijndalD
- 8J. BrandtM
- 10O. GloukhM
- 15Y. BaasD
- 18D. KlaassenM
- 24J. MokioM
- 30A. BouwmanD
- 38Marcos LeonardoF
Substitutes
- 6T. KehrerD
- 11V. TsygankovF
- 21Jofre TorrentsD
- 22J. HeerkensG
- 26M. PaesG
- 36D. JanseD
- 43Rayane BounidaF
- 67Mohamed AbdallaM
- 68A. OuazaneM
- 99T. ArokodareF
Atalanta
4-2-3-1Starting XI
- 9G. ScamaccaF
- 13ÉdersonM
- 16R. BellanovaD
- 17C. De KetelaereM
- 29M. CarnesecchiG
- 31T. KristensenD
- 40R. ObriÄD
- 59N. ZalewskiM
- 70G. GaetanoM
- 77D. ZappacostaD
- 99E. ElmasM
Substitutes
- 8Mario PasalicM
- 10L. SamardžićM
- 11J. RoweF
- 41J. IdeleM
- 46S. LevakM
- 47L. BernasconiD
- 51M. SonzogniG
- 57M. SportielloG
- 90N. KrstovićF
Ajax
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lucas Rosa | D | 90 | 7.9 | — | — | 2 | 1 | 3 | 0/1 |
| Youri Baas | D | 90 | 7.9 | — | 1 | — | — | 1 | — |
| Oscar Gloukh | M | 62 | 7.5 | — | — | 3 | 2 | 3 | 1/2 |
| Julian Brandt | M | 90 | 7.5 | — | — | 2 | 1 | 3 | — |
| Sofyan Amrabat | M | 90 | 7.3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Jorthy Mokio | M | 90 | 7.3 | — | — | 2 | 1 | 2 | — |
| Marc-André Ter Stegen | G | 90 | 7.2 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Davy Klaassen(C) | M | 62 | 7.0 | — | — | 2 | — | 1 | — |
| Aaron Bouwman | D | 90 | 7.0 | — | — | — | — | — | 1/1 |
| Marcos Leonardo | F | 66 | 6.6 | — | — | 1 | — | 2 | 2/2 |
| Owen Wijndal | D | 90 | 6.6 | — | — | 1 | — | 3 | — |
| Substitutes | |||||||||
| Joeri Heerkens | G | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Thilo Kehrer | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Mohamed Abdalla | M | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Maarten Paes | G | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Dies Janse | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Rayane Bounida | F | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Jofre Torrents | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Tolu Arokodare | F | 24 | 7.2 | 1 | — | 2 | 1 | — | 0/1 |
| Viktor Tsygankov | F | 28 | 6.7 | — | — | — | — | — | 0/1 |
| Abdellah Ouazane | M | 28 | 6.6 | — | — | — | — | — | 0/1 |
Atalanta
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Davide Zappacosta | D | 90 | 7.7 | — | — | — | — | 1 | 2/3 |
| Gianluca Gaetano | M | 80 | 7.5 | — | — | 2 | — | — | 2/2 |
| Relja Obrić | D | 90 | 7.3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Thomas Kristensen | D | 90 | 7.3 | — | — | 1 | — | — | — |
| Marco Carnesecchi | G | 90 | 7.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Gianluca Scamacca | F | 72 | 6.9 | — | — | 2 | — | 2 | 1/1 |
| Nicola Zalewski | M | 90 | 6.9 | — | — | 2 | — | 2 | 0/1 |
| Raoul Bellanova | D | 90 | 6.9 | — | — | — | — | 2 | 0/1 |
| Charles De Ketelaere | M | 62 | 6.9 | — | — | — | — | 2 | 2/3 |
| Éderson(C) | M | 90 | 6.6 | — | — | — | — | — | 1/1 |
| Eljif Elmas | M | 80 | 6.5 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
| Substitutes | |||||||||
| Marco Sportiello | G | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Lorenzo Bernasconi | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Mattia Sonzogni | G | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Javison Idele | M | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Sergej Levak | M | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Nikola Krstović | F | 18 | 6.9 | — | — | — | — | — | 1/1 |
| Lazar Samardžić | M | 28 | 6.7 | — | — | 1 | — | — | 1/1 |
| Jonathan Rowe | F | 10 | 6.7 | — | — | — | — | 1 | 0/1 |
| Mario Pašalić | M | 10 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
Prediction Q&A
- Who did Fipster predict to win Ajax vs Atalanta?
- Fipster's AI model predicted Ajax to win against Atalanta.
- What score did Fipster predict for Ajax vs Atalanta?
- Fipster predicted a final score of Ajax 3–2 Atalanta.
- What were the win probabilities for Ajax vs Atalanta?
- Fipster's model gave Ajax a 62% chance of winning, Atalanta a 19% chance, and a 19% chance of a draw.
- How confident was Fipster in this prediction?
- Fipster's model assigned this prediction 62% confidence — a medium-confidence call.