AF Elbasani vs Bate Borisov
- Aggregate:
- Bate Borisov 1 1 AF Elbasani (pens)
- Advances:
- Bate Borisov
Match recap
AF Elbasani and Bate Borisov drew 1–1 in their UEFA Europa Conference League fixture.
Fipster’s pre-match call
Predicted
3-0 AF Elbasani win
Actual
1–1
Outcome probability
AF Elbasani and Bate Borisov face off in the 1st Qualifying Round of the 2026 competition, with both sides eager to make a strong start. The previous encounters have ended in draws, but this time, Elbasani look poised to break the deadlock.
Match factors
Bate Borisov's key attacker outperforms league average
Vladislav Varaksa scores 0.5 goals per game, more than double league attacker average of 0.204
Egor Rusakov's assist rate is a creative asset
Rusakov averages 0.5 assists per game, significantly above league midfielder average of 0.114
AF Elbasani lacks top scorers, limiting goal threat
No top scorers listed for AF Elbasani reduces their attacking threat against Bate Borisov
Bate Borisov concedes frequently away, vulnerable at defense
Bate concedes 2.5 goals per away game on average, increasing AF Elbasani's chance to score
The context
In this competition, AF Elbasani have played two matches so far, drawing both and scoring once while conceding once. Bate Borisov have had a slightly tougher run with four matches played, yet no wins, three draws, and one loss, scoring twice but conceding six. Their head-to-head history shows two draws, indicating a balanced rivalry so far.
Key insights

Vladislav Varaksa
Bate Borisov
Varaksa scores at a rate more than double the league average for attackers, making him a key threat despite the team's struggles.
UEFA Europa Conference League 26/271 goal in 2 appearances in this competition

Egor Rusakov
Bate Borisov
Rusakov's assist rate is well above average, highlighting his creative influence even with limited minutes.
UEFA Europa Conference League 26/271 assist in 2 appearances in this competition
Analysis
Bate Borisov's key attacker Vladislav Varaksa stands out with a scoring rate well above the league average, but the team’s defensive frailties on the road—conceding an average of 2.5 goals per away game—leave them vulnerable. AF Elbasani, despite lacking standout scorers, benefit from this defensive weakness and the home advantage. The prediction of a 3-0 scoreline reflects Elbasani's expected dominance and Bate's struggles to keep clean sheets away from home.
Key facts
- 1.AF Elbasani have played 2 matches in this competition (W0 D2 L0, GF 1 / GA 1).
- 2.Bate Borisov have played 4 matches in this competition (W0 D3 L1, GF 2 / GA 6).
- 3.In 2 head-to-head meetings, AF Elbasani and Bate Borisov have drawn both times.
- 4.Bate Borisov concedes an average of 2.5 goals per away game in this competition.
- 5.Vladislav Varaksa scores 0.5 goals per game, more than double the league average for attackers.
- 6.Egor Rusakov averages 0.5 assists per game, significantly above the league average for midfielders.
- 7.AF Elbasani lacks top scorers, limiting their goal threat but benefiting from Bate's defensive issues.
Prediction
Expect AF Elbasani to take control and secure a comfortable 3-0 victory. Their ability to exploit Bate Borisov's defensive lapses, combined with home conditions, should see them comfortably outscore their opponents in this league stage fixture.
Player Insights
Standout players Fipster expects to impact the match — curated highlights, not full squad lists
Home — AF Elbasani
No standout top scorers flagged for AF Elbasani
Away — Bate Borisov

The verdict
This fixture promises a clear outcome with AF Elbasani likely to assert themselves decisively. Bate Borisov will need to tighten up defensively in future matches to avoid similar results, but for now, Elbasani look set to claim all three points with a solid 3-0 win.
Prediction generated 14 Oct 2026, 12:51 UTC · Fipster Model v1.163
Team Comparison
Season shape — attack, defence, form, clean sheets & win rate
Home vs Away comparison
Goal difference in each of the last few fixtures — above the line is a net win, below is a net loss
Season comparison
Goals scored & conceded, goal difference and clean sheets across the season
Halftime Performance
What each side does once the whistle goes for half time
Streaks
Recent-form runs — each side’s most-recent game meets in the middle
Head to Head
Yellow Card
Goal
Unknown
Unknown
Yellow Card
Goal
Unknown
Unknown
Unknown
Unknown
Unknown
Unknown
Unknown
AF Elbasani
Starting XI
- 4B. Lulaj
- 9R. Hebaj
- 10A. Nikaj
- 11K. Kasa
- 15Y. Epitaux
- 17A. Ibrahim
- 18A. Kasa
- 24I. Aleksovski
- 25L. Tresa
- 77B. Lila
- 79I. Diallo
Substitutes
- 1K. Totoshi
- 6D. Dine
- 8D. Ibraimi
- 14M. Barjamaj
- 20B. Karrica
- 22A. Lleshi
- 23E. Lukoki Mateso
- 28O. Niang
- 29J. Zykollari
- 41A. Borici
- 70Insa Boye
Bate Borisov
Starting XI
- 5M. Sakuta
- 6H. Moussakhanian
- 7V. Angban
- 16D. Sokol
- 25N. Neskoromny
- 26V. Varaksa
- 33Artem Rakhmanov
- 37E. Puerto
- 42A. Zhurin
- 52E. Kress
- 55K. Kaplenko
Substitutes
- 8K. Apanasevich
- 9N. Mirskiy
- 10E. Rusakov
- 13Y. Khramtsevich
- 14M. Telesh
- 17P. Kolosovskiy
- 28I. Mikhnyuk
- 30A. Yarmolich
- 35A. Skopets
- 44M. Mardas
- 47A. Sakhonchik
- 88P. Dubovskiy
Prediction Q&A
- Who did Fipster predict to win AF Elbasani vs Bate Borisov?
- Fipster's AI model predicted AF Elbasani to win against Bate Borisov.
- What score did Fipster predict for AF Elbasani vs Bate Borisov?
- Fipster predicted a final score of AF Elbasani 3–0 Bate Borisov.
- What were the win probabilities for AF Elbasani vs Bate Borisov?
- Fipster's model gave AF Elbasani a 85% chance of winning, Bate Borisov a 7% chance, and a 8% chance of a draw.
- How confident was Fipster in this prediction?
- Fipster's model assigned this prediction 85% confidence — a high-confidence call.

