AF Elbasani vs Bate Borisov

UEFA Europa Conference League1st Qualifying Round
Ref: I. OrlicElbasan Arena, Elbasan · 12,000 cap
Fipster Pick
Home WinhighMiss
Qualifying — two-legged tieLeg 1 of 2
Aggregate:
Bate Borisov 1 1 AF Elbasani (pens)
Advances:
Bate Borisov

Match recap

AF Elbasani and Bate Borisov drew 1–1 in their UEFA Europa Conference League fixture.

Fipster’s pre-match call

Predicted

3-0 AF Elbasani win

Actual

1–1

✗ Missed

Outcome probability

AF Elbasani 85%Draw 8%Bate Borisov 7%

AF Elbasani and Bate Borisov face off in the 1st Qualifying Round of the 2026 competition, with both sides eager to make a strong start. The previous encounters have ended in draws, but this time, Elbasani look poised to break the deadlock.

Match factors

Statistical Edgehigh

Bate Borisov's key attacker outperforms league average

Vladislav Varaksa scores 0.5 goals per game, more than double league attacker average of 0.204

Statistical Edgehigh

Egor Rusakov's assist rate is a creative asset

Rusakov averages 0.5 assists per game, significantly above league midfielder average of 0.114

Tactical Advantagemedium

AF Elbasani lacks top scorers, limiting goal threat

No top scorers listed for AF Elbasani reduces their attacking threat against Bate Borisov

Form Momentummedium

Bate Borisov concedes frequently away, vulnerable at defense

Bate concedes 2.5 goals per away game on average, increasing AF Elbasani's chance to score

The context

In this competition, AF Elbasani have played two matches so far, drawing both and scoring once while conceding once. Bate Borisov have had a slightly tougher run with four matches played, yet no wins, three draws, and one loss, scoring twice but conceding six. Their head-to-head history shows two draws, indicating a balanced rivalry so far.

Analysis

Bate Borisov's key attacker Vladislav Varaksa stands out with a scoring rate well above the league average, but the team’s defensive frailties on the road—conceding an average of 2.5 goals per away game—leave them vulnerable. AF Elbasani, despite lacking standout scorers, benefit from this defensive weakness and the home advantage. The prediction of a 3-0 scoreline reflects Elbasani's expected dominance and Bate's struggles to keep clean sheets away from home.

Key facts

  1. 1.AF Elbasani have played 2 matches in this competition (W0 D2 L0, GF 1 / GA 1).
  2. 2.Bate Borisov have played 4 matches in this competition (W0 D3 L1, GF 2 / GA 6).
  3. 3.In 2 head-to-head meetings, AF Elbasani and Bate Borisov have drawn both times.
  4. 4.Bate Borisov concedes an average of 2.5 goals per away game in this competition.
  5. 5.Vladislav Varaksa scores 0.5 goals per game, more than double the league average for attackers.
  6. 6.Egor Rusakov averages 0.5 assists per game, significantly above the league average for midfielders.
  7. 7.AF Elbasani lacks top scorers, limiting their goal threat but benefiting from Bate's defensive issues.

Prediction

Expect AF Elbasani to take control and secure a comfortable 3-0 victory. Their ability to exploit Bate Borisov's defensive lapses, combined with home conditions, should see them comfortably outscore their opponents in this league stage fixture.

Player Insights

Standout players Fipster expects to impact the match — curated highlights, not full squad lists

Home — AF Elbasani

No standout top scorers flagged for AF Elbasani

Away — Bate Borisov

Vladislav Varaksa

Vladislav Varaksa

Attacker

Bate Borisov

Total Goals
1
League avg: 0.16
2 played
2 starts
168 mins
~84 mins/game

The verdict

This fixture promises a clear outcome with AF Elbasani likely to assert themselves decisively. Bate Borisov will need to tighten up defensively in future matches to avoid similar results, but for now, Elbasani look set to claim all three points with a solid 3-0 win.

Prediction generated 14 Oct 2026, 12:51 UTC · Fipster Model v1.163

Prediction Q&A

Who did Fipster predict to win AF Elbasani vs Bate Borisov?
Fipster's AI model predicted AF Elbasani to win against Bate Borisov.
What score did Fipster predict for AF Elbasani vs Bate Borisov?
Fipster predicted a final score of AF Elbasani 3–0 Bate Borisov.
What were the win probabilities for AF Elbasani vs Bate Borisov?
Fipster's model gave AF Elbasani a 85% chance of winning, Bate Borisov a 7% chance, and a 8% chance of a draw.
How confident was Fipster in this prediction?
Fipster's model assigned this prediction 85% confidence — a high-confidence call.