AC Milan vs Inter
Match recap
AC Milan beat Inter 3–1 in their Serie A fixture. Pulišić, Rabiot, and Diego Moreira scored for AC Milan; Bastoni replied for Inter. Expected-goals data put the chance balance at 0.69 for AC Milan versus 1.79 for Inter. AC Milan sit 5th in the Serie A table while Inter are 2nd.
Outcome probability
The Milan derby always promises fireworks, and this upcoming clash looks set to deliver just that. Both sides have shown strong form this season, but the prediction leans towards a high-scoring encounter with Inter edging out AC Milan by a single goal.
Match factors
Inter missing key striker Lautaro Martínez
Lautaro Martínez is confirmed out with a thigh injury, reducing Inter's attacking options and increasing reliance on Thuram and others
Inter's superior scoring form and efficiency
Inter averages 2.78 goals per game with high scoring consistency, outpacing AC Milan's 2 goals per game
Inter's creative midfield trio influence
Diouf, Barella, and Zieliński provide strong assist potential and key passes, enhancing Inter's attacking threat
AC Milan's defensive reliance on Pavlović and De Winter
Pavlović and De Winter show strong defensive stats but face a tough challenge against Inter's attackers
Inter's strong recent winning streak
Inter has won 7 of their last 8 matches, showing strong form momentum heading into this fixture
The context
Inter currently sit second in the league with 22 points from 8 games, boasting an impressive winning streak and a potent attack averaging nearly 2.8 goals per game. AC Milan, meanwhile, hold fifth place with 18 points, undefeated but slightly less prolific in front of goal. Historically, Inter have a slight edge in head-to-head meetings, which adds an extra layer of intrigue to this fixture.
Key insights
- M
Marcus Thuram-Ulien
Inter
Top scorer for Inter with 5 goals in 7 games, showing strong recent form and clinical finishing.
Serie A 26/275 goals in 7 appearances, 0.71 goals/game
Andy Diouf
Inter
Leading assist provider with 4 assists in 7 games, key to Inter's creative play and goal setups.
Serie A 26/274 assists in 7 appearances, 0.57 assists/game
Piotr Zieliński
Inter
Contributes both goals and assists, providing creativity and key passes in midfield.
Serie A 26/272 goals and 2 assists in 7 appearances
- S
Strahinja Pavlović
AC Milan
Strong defensive presence with high passing accuracy, crucial for Milan's build-up play.
Serie A 26/2791% passing accuracy, 2.5 tackles per game
Analysis
Inter's attacking trio, led by Marcus Thuram-Ulien, who has netted 5 goals in 7 appearances, poses a significant threat. The creative midfielders Andy Diouf and Piotr Zieliński provide ample assists, enhancing Inter's offensive fluidity. AC Milan's defence, anchored by Strahinja Pavlović, will face a stern test against this firepower. Despite Milan's solid defensive stats, the Nerazzurri's recent form and scoring efficiency suggest they will find the net multiple times. The absence of Lautaro Martínez for Inter is a blow, but the team’s depth and momentum should compensate.
Key facts
- 1.Inter lead the head-to-head with 9 wins to AC Milan's 7 in 20 matches.
- 2.Inter are 2nd in the league with 22 points from 8 games (W7 D1 L0).
- 3.AC Milan are 5th with 18 points from 8 games (W5 D3 L0).
- 4.Inter average 2.78 goals per game, outscoring AC Milan's 2 goals per game.
- 5.Marcus Thuram-Ulien is Inter's top scorer with 5 goals in 7 appearances.
- 6.Andy Diouf leads Inter's assists with 4 in 7 games.
- 7.Predicted halftime score is 1-2, with Inter leading early.
- 8.Total cards expected in the match: 4.
Prediction
Expect Inter to take an early lead, reflected in the predicted halftime score of 2-1 in their favour. AC Milan will fight back, but ultimately the Nerazzurri are forecast to secure a 3-2 victory. The match should feature four cards, indicating a fiercely contested derby with plenty of passion and intensity.
Player Insights
Standout players Fipster expects to impact the match — curated highlights, not full squad lists
Home — AC Milan
No standout top scorers flagged for AC Milan
Away — Inter
The verdict
This derby promises excitement, with both teams eager to assert dominance. While AC Milan will push hard, Inter's attacking prowess and current form make them the favourites to snatch a narrow win. Fans should brace for a thrilling encounter with goals and drama aplenty.
Prediction generated 28 Oct 2026, 19:24 UTC · Fipster Model v1.166
Form as the teams went into this match — excludes this result and anything since.
Team Comparison
Season shape — attack, defence, form, clean sheets & win rate
Home vs Away comparison
Goal difference in each of the last few fixtures — above the line is a net win, below is a net loss
Season comparison
Goals scored & conceded, goal difference and clean sheets across the season
Halftime Performance
What each side does once the whistle goes for half time
Streaks
Recent-form runs — each side’s most-recent game meets in the middle
Head to Head
Pulišić
Assist: Diego Moreira
Rabiot
Assist: Diego Moreira
Bastoni
Diego Moreira
De Winter
Yellow Card
Diego Moreira
Yellow Card
Diouf
Çalhanoğlu
Penalty cancelled
Bastoni
Musah
Pulišić
Bisseck
Barella
Bocoum
Diego Moreira
Ramos
Carlos Augusto
Yellow Card
Match Statistics
AC Milan
3-4-2-1Starting XI
- 5K. De WinterD
- 9Gonçalo RamosF
- 11C. PulišićM
- 12A. RabiotM
- 13S. BocoumM
- 14L. ModrićM
- 16M. MaignanG
- 22Diego MoreiraM
- 31S. PavlovićD
- 34Mario GilaD
- 80Y. MusahM
Substitutes
- 2P. EstupiñánD
- 20O. HutchinsonF
- 28C. ComottoM
- 30A. JashariM
- 33D. BartesaghiD
- 35V. VladimirovD
- 40L. OssolaM
- 41L. P. BouyerG
- 42F. TerraccianoD
- 70A. CissèM
- 73F. CamardaF
- 96L. TorrianiG
Inter
3-4-2-1Starting XI
- 1Josep MartínezG
- 8P. SučićM
- 9M. ThuramF
- 17A. DioufM
- 20H. ÇalhanoğluM
- 23N. BarellaM
- 25M. AkanjiD
- 30Carlos AugustoM
- 31Y. BisseckD
- 95A. BastoniD
- 99D. SpenceM
Substitutes
- 5A. StankovićM
- 7P. ZielińskiM
- 12R. Di GennaroG
- 14A. BonnyF
- 22H. MkhitaryanM
- 32F. DimarcoD
- 40A. TahoG
- 46L. BovioD
- 48M. MosconiF
- 51L. JakirovićD
- 53M. LavelliF
- 94F. EspositoF
AC Milan
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Diego Moreira | M | 89 | 9.0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1/2 |
| M. Maignan | G | 90 | 8.7 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| A. Rabiot | M | 90 | 8.0 | 1 | — | 2 | 1 | — | 0/1 |
| C. Pulišić | M | 82 | 7.8 | 1 | — | 1 | 1 | — | 3/3 |
| L. Modrić | M | 90 | 7.2 | — | — | 1 | — | 1 | 1/2 |
| Y. Musah | M | 82 | 7.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| O. Hutchinson | F | 1 | 6.8 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Gonçalo Ramos | F | 89 | 6.7 | — | — | — | — | — | 0/2 |
| S. Pavlović | D | 90 | 6.6 | — | — | 1 | — | — | — |
| S. Bocoum | M | 83 | 6.5 | — | — | — | — | 1 | 0/1 |
| K. De Winter | D | 90 | 6.5 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Mario Gila | D | 90 | 6.4 | — | — | — | — | — | 0/1 |
| F. Terracciano | D | 1 | 6.4 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| A. Jashari | M | 8 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| D. Bartesaghi | D | 7 | 6.2 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| A. Cissè | M | 8 | 6.1 | — | — | 1 | 1 | — | — |
| L. Ossola | M | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| C. Comotto | M | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| F. Camarda | F | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| L. Torriani | G | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| P. Estupiñán | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| L. P. Bouyer | G | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| V. Vladimirov | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Inter
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H. Çalhanoğlu | M | 72 | 7.2 | — | — | 1 | 1 | 5 | — |
| A. Bastoni | D | 81 | 7.0 | 1 | — | 1 | 1 | — | — |
| M. Akanji | D | 90 | 6.9 | — | — | 3 | — | 1 | — |
| F. Esposito | F | 8 | 6.5 | — | — | — | — | 2 | — |
| A. Diouf | M | 72 | 6.5 | — | — | 2 | 2 | 2 | 3/3 |
| A. Bonny | F | 8 | 6.4 | — | — | 1 | — | — | — |
| P. Sučić | M | 90 | 6.3 | — | — | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2/2 |
| M. Thuram | F | 90 | 6.3 | — | — | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1/2 |
| Y. Bisseck | D | 82 | 6.2 | — | — | 1 | 1 | — | 0/1 |
| F. Dimarco | D | 9 | 6.0 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
| N. Barella | M | 82 | 6.0 | — | — | 1 | — | — | 0/2 |
| P. Zieliński | M | 18 | 5.9 | — | — | 1 | — | — | 1/1 |
| D. Spence | M | 90 | 5.9 | — | — | 1 | 1 | — | 1/3 |
| Josep Martínez | G | 90 | 5.8 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Carlos Augusto | M | 90 | 5.7 | — | — | 3 | — | 1 | — |
| H. Mkhitaryan | M | 18 | 5.6 | — | — | 1 | — | — | — |
| R. Di Gennaro | G | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| A. Stanković | M | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| M. Mosconi | F | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| A. Taho | G | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| L. Jakirović | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| M. Lavelli | F | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| L. Bovio | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Prediction Q&A
- Who did Fipster predict to win AC Milan vs Inter?
- Fipster's AI model predicted Inter to win against AC Milan.
- What score did Fipster predict for AC Milan vs Inter?
- Fipster predicted a final score of AC Milan 2–3 Inter.
- What were the win probabilities for AC Milan vs Inter?
- Fipster's model gave AC Milan a 19% chance of winning, Inter a 61% chance, and a 20% chance of a draw.
- How confident was Fipster in this prediction?
- Fipster's model assigned this prediction 61% confidence — a medium-confidence call.