AC Milan vs Cagliari
Match recap
Cagliari beat AC Milan 2–1 in their Serie A fixture. Saelemaekers scored for AC Milan; Borrelli and Rodríguez replied for Cagliari. Expected-goals data put the chance balance at 1.74 for AC Milan versus 2.78 for Cagliari. AC Milan sit 5th in the Serie A table while Cagliari are 14th.
Analysis
As the Serie A season nears its climax, AC Milan, affectionately known as the Rossoneri, host Cagliari in what promises to be a closely fought encounter at the iconic San Siro.
AC Milan sit comfortably in 3rd place with 70 points, while Cagliari languish in 16th with 40 points. Historically, Milan have dominated this fixture, winning 14 of their last 20 meetings, and the average goals per game between these sides is a healthy 2.9.
Milan's attacking threat is spearheaded by Rafael Leão, who boasts 9 goals this season and a particularly strong home record. Midfield maestro Samuele Ricci's creativity, with 4 assists, will be key in unlocking Cagliari's defence. Defensively, the Rossoneri are solid, with Pavlović and Tomori providing a robust backline. Cagliari's injury woes further tip the scales in Milan's favour.
Prediction
Expect a tight first half with Milan edging ahead 1-0 by halftime, maintaining their slender lead to the final whistle. The match is likely to see around four cards, reflecting a competitive but controlled contest. Confidence in a Milan home win stands at 60%.
Outcome probability
Key Insights
Leão's Home Scoring Edge
Leão's strong home scoring form and finishing skills give AC Milan a key attacking advantage.
Ricci's Creative Influence
Ricci leads assists and key passes, enhancing Milan's chance creation and linking midfield to attack.
Nkunku's Recent Scoring Form
Nkunku's 2 goals in last 5 matches and high match ratings indicate rising impact potential.
Cagliari's Missing Key Players
Cagliari has 5 injured/questionable players including attackers, weakening their offensive threat.
Defensive Solidity from Pavlović and Tomori
Strong defensive performances and tackling from Pavlović and Tomori bolster Milan's defense against Cagliari's attack.
Key Takeaways
In summary, AC Milan's superior form, home advantage, and key player performances should see them secure a narrow 1-0 victory over Cagliari, rounding off the season on a positive note.
- AC Milan have won 14 of 20 matches against Cagliari.
- Head-to-head matches average 2.9 goals per game.
- AC Milan are 3rd in Serie A with 70 points.
- Cagliari are 16th with 40 points.
- Rafael Leão is Milan's top scorer with 9 goals.
- Samuele Ricci leads Milan's assists with 4.
- Milan's defence features strong performers Pavlović and Tomori.
- Cagliari have 5 injured or questionable players.
Player Insights
Standout players Fipster expects to impact the match — curated highlights, not full squad lists
Home — AC Milan
Away — Cagliari
No standout top scorers flagged for Cagliari
Form as the teams went into this match — excludes this result and anything since.
Team Comparison
Season shape — attack, defence, form, clean sheets & win rate
Home vs Away comparison
Goal difference in each of the last few fixtures — above the line is a net win, below is a net loss
Season comparison
Goals scored & conceded, goal difference and clean sheets across the season
Halftime Performance
What each side does once the whistle goes for half time
Streaks
Recent-form runs — each side’s most-recent game meets in the middle
Head to Head
Zé Pedro
Yellow Card
Saelemaekers
Assist: Giménez
Borrelli
Giménez
Pavlović
Yellow Card
Rodríguez
Maignan
Yellow Card
Nkunku
Tomori
Rodríguez
Jashari
Zé Pedro
Fofana
Borrelli
Deiola
Esposito
Sulemana
Yellow Card
Match Statistics
AC Milan
3-5-2Starting XI
- 7S. GiménezF
- 12A. RabiotM
- 16M. MaignanG
- 18C. NkunkuF
- 19Y. FofanaM
- 23F. TomoriD
- 30A. JashariM
- 31S. PavlovićD
- 33D. BartesaghiM
- 46M. GabbiaD
- 56A. SaelemaekersM
Substitutes
- 2P. EstupiñánD
- 4S. RicciM
- 5K. De WinterD
- 8R. Loftus-CheekM
- 9N. FüllkrugF
- 10Rafael LeãoF
- 11C. PulišićM
- 14L. ModrićM
- 24Z. AthekameD
- 27D. OdoguD
- 34V. VladimirovD
- 37M. PittarellaG
- 45J. SardoM
- 96L. TorrianiG
Cagliari
3-5-2Starting XI
- 1E. CaprileG
- 8M. AdopoM
- 10G. GaetanoM
- 14A. DeiolaM
- 15J. RodríguezD
- 26Y. MinaD
- 28G. ZappaM
- 29G. BorrelliF
- 32Zé PedroD
- 33A. ObertM
- 94S. EspositoF
Substitutes
- 2M. PalestraD
- 4L. MazzitelliM
- 12A. SherriG
- 17M. FeliciF
- 18O. RaterinkD
- 19A. BelottiF
- 20A. AlbarracínF
- 22A. DossenaD
- 24G. CiocciG
- 25I. SulemanaM
- 31P. MendyF
- 36N. GranduF
- 37Y. TrepyF
- 38Ivan Stoyanov SulevM
AC Milan
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Maignan(C) | G | 97 | 9.7 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Alexis Saelemaekers | M | 97 | 7.9 | 1 | — | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1/2 |
| Adrien Rabiot | M | 97 | 7.7 | — | — | 4 | — | 4 | — |
| Matteo Gabbia | D | 97 | 7.5 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Davide Bartesaghi | M | 97 | 7.2 | — | — | — | — | 2 | 1/2 |
| Christopher Nkunku | F | 61 | 6.6 | — | — | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1/1 |
| Ardon Jashari | M | 62 | 6.6 | — | — | — | — | — | 2/2 |
| Santiago Giménez | F | 45 | 6.3 | — | 1 | 2 | — | 1 | 0/2 |
| Strahinja Pavlović | D | 97 | 6.3 | — | — | 1 | — | — | 1/1 |
| Fikayo Tomori | D | 61 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Youssouf Fofana | M | 68 | 6.2 | — | — | 1 | 1 | — | 0/1 |
| Substitutes | |||||||||
| Pervis Estupiñán | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Koni De Winter | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Cheveyo Mul-Balentien | F | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Lorenzo Torriani | G | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| David Odogu | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Jacopo Sardo | M | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Matteo Pittarella | G | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Valeri Ivanov Vladimirov | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Ruben Loftus-Cheek | M | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Samuele Ricci | M | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Luka Modrić | M | 35 | 7.3 | — | — | 1 | — | 1 | — |
| Rafael Leão | F | 29 | 7.2 | — | — | — | — | 3 | 1/1 |
| Zachary Athekame | D | 36 | 7.2 | — | — | — | — | — | 1/1 |
| Christian Pulišić | M | 52 | 6.7 | — | — | 3 | — | — | 3/5 |
| Niclas Füllkrug | F | 36 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Cagliari
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gennaro Borrelli | F | 74 | 8.3 | 1 | — | 4 | 4 | — | 0/1 |
| Sebastiano Esposito | F | 95 | 7.7 | — | — | 2 | — | 4 | — |
| Gianluca Gaetano | M | 97 | 7.2 | — | — | 4 | 2 | 1 | 2/3 |
| Juan Rodríguez | D | 62 | 7.0 | 1 | — | 1 | 1 | — | — |
| Elia Caprile | G | 97 | 6.9 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Adam Obert | M | 97 | 6.9 | — | — | — | — | 3 | — |
| Zé Pedro | D | 63 | 6.7 | — | — | 2 | — | — | — |
| Michel Adopo | M | 97 | 6.5 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
| Gabriele Zappa | M | 97 | 6.5 | — | — | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0/1 |
| Yerry Mina | D | 97 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | — | 0/1 |
| Alessandro Deiola(C) | M | 74 | 6.3 | — | — | 2 | 1 | — | — |
| Substitutes | |||||||||
| Andrea Belotti | F | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Yael Trepy | F | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Ivan Sulev | M | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Giuseppe Ciocci | G | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Mattia Felici | F | 2 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Alen Sherri | G | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Luca Mazzitelli | M | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Nicola Grandu | F | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Othniël Raterink | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Agustín Albarracín | F | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Marco Palestra | D | 34 | 7.3 | — | — | 1 | — | 2 | 3/3 |
| Paul Mendy | F | 23 | 6.9 | — | — | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0/1 |
| Alberto Dossena | D | 35 | 6.9 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Sulemana | M | 23 | 6.2 | — | — | — | — | — | 0/1 |