AC Milan vs Bologna
Bologna stuns Milan with late surge
S. Mbangula's hat-trick seals a thrilling 4-2 away win.
Bologna overturned an early deficit to claim a 4-2 victory at AC Milan, with S. Mbangula starring by netting three goals including the opener and a late clincher. Despite A. Cissè's brace putting Milan ahead in the first half, Bologna capitalised on a second-half own goal and Mbangula's second strike to complete the comeback. This result defied Fipster's high-confidence prediction of a Milan clean sheet and home win, delivering a memorable upset in Serie A.
Outcome probability
AC Milan, also known as the Rossoneri, face Bologna in a Serie A regular season match that promises to showcase Milan's superior form and tactical edge.
Match factors
Pavlović's defensive dominance
Pavlović's 70% duel win rate and 2.57 tackles/game surpass league defender averages, bolstering Milan's defense
Bologna's scoring streak but defensive struggles
Bologna scored in 4 of last 5 but conceded in 4 of last 5, indicating defensive vulnerability Milan can exploit
Milan's home scoring strength
Milan averages 2.7 goals at home, well above league average, likely to pressure Bologna's defense
The context
This fixture sees AC Milan sitting comfortably in 5th place with 15 points from 7 games, while Bologna occupy 13th with 8 points from 8 matches. The Rossoneri have a clear statistical advantage in this encounter, having won 14 of their 20 meetings against Bologna.
Key insights
- S
Strahinja Pavlović
AC Milan
Pavlović's 70% duel win rate and 2.57 tackles per game surpass league averages, strengthening Milan's defence.
Serie A 26/2770% duel win rate, 2.57 tackles/game
Alphadjo Cissè
AC Milan
Cissè is fit and firing with 2 goals in 5 games, ready to fill the gap left by injured forwards.
Serie A 26/272 goals in 5 appearances
Christian Pulišić
AC Milan
Pulišić has been consistent with 2 goals in his last 5 games, providing creativity and scoring threat.
Serie A 26/272 goals in last 5 games
Juan Miranda
Bologna
Miranda is Bologna's top assister with 2 assists in 6 games, key for their attacking set-pieces.
Serie A 26/272 assists in 6 games
Analysis
AC Milan's goal difference of +7 compared to Bologna's -2 highlights their stronger offensive and defensive capabilities. Milan's home scoring average of 2.7 goals per game is well above the league average, putting significant pressure on Bologna's defence. Key players like Alphadjo Cissè, who boasts 2 goals in 5 appearances, and Christian Pulišić, with 2 goals in his last 5 games, are expected to lead the attack. Defensively, Strahinja Pavlović's impressive duel win rate and tackling stats bolster Milan's backline, while Bologna's defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed in recent matches.
Key facts
- 1.AC Milan have won 14 of 20 meetings against Bologna.
- 2.AC Milan rank 5th with 15 points from 7 games; Bologna 13th with 8 points from 8 games.
- 3.AC Milan have a +7 goal difference compared to Bologna's -2.
- 4.Milan average 2.7 goals per home game, above the league average.
- 5.Bologna have scored in 4 of their last 5 games but conceded in 4 of those as well.
- 6.Strahinja Pavlović has a 70% duel win rate and averages 2.57 tackles per game.
- 7.Alphadjo Cissè has scored 2 goals in 5 appearances this season.
Prediction
We predict AC Milan to take an early lead by halftime with a 1-0 scoreline and extend their advantage to 2-0 by fulltime. The match is expected to feature around 4 cards, reflecting a competitive but controlled encounter.
Player Insights
Standout players Fipster expects to impact the match — curated highlights, not full squad lists
Home — AC Milan
Away — Bologna
The verdict
With their superior form, tactical strengths, and key player performances, AC Milan look set to secure a comfortable 2-0 victory over Bologna, reinforcing their position in the league standings.
Prediction generated 25 Oct 2026, 21:37 UTC · Fipster Model v1.165
Form as the teams went into this match — excludes this result and anything since.
Team Comparison
Season shape — attack, defence, form, clean sheets & win rate
Home vs Away comparison
Goal difference in each of the last few fixtures — above the line is a net win, below is a net loss
Season comparison
Goals scored & conceded, goal difference and clean sheets across the season
Halftime Performance
What each side does once the whistle goes for half time
Streaks
Recent-form runs — each side’s most-recent game meets in the middle
Head to Head
Mbangula
Assist: Zortea
Cissè
Cissè
Assist: Tomori
Tomori
Darmian
Estupiñán
Hutchinson
Bernardeschi
Alhassane
Bartesaghi (OG)
Mbangula
Assist: Miranda
Bartesaghi
Theate
Pobega
Yellow Card
Casale
Heggem
Yellow Card
Mbangula
Assist: Odgaard
Ramos
Match Statistics
AC Milan
4-2-3-1Starting XI
- 2P. EstupiñánD
- 5K. De WinterD
- 9Gonçalo RamosF
- 16M. MaignanG
- 20O. HutchinsonM
- 23F. TomoriD
- 30A. JashariM
- 31S. PavlovićD
- 33D. BartesaghiM
- 70A. CissèM
- 80Y. MusahM
Substitutes
- 11C. PulišićM
- 13S. BocoumD
- 14L. ModrićM
- 28C. ComottoM
- 35V. VladimirovD
- 40L. OssolaM
- 41L. P. BouyerG
- 42F. TerraccianoD
- 73F. CamardaF
- 96L. TorrianiG
Bologna
3-4-3Starting XI
- 1Ł. SkorupskiG
- 3A. TheateD
- 4T. PobegaM
- 10F. BernardeschiF
- 11S. MbangulaF
- 16N. CasaleD
- 19L. FergusonM
- 20N. ZorteaM
- 21J. OdgaardF
- 23R. AlhassaneM
- 36M. DarmianD
Substitutes
- 5E. HellandD
- 6N. MoroM
- 8M. AmondarainM
- 9A. DovbykF
- 14T. HeggemD
- 17O. El AzzouziM
- 18M. LibraM
- 25M. PessinaG
- 28N. CambiaghiF
- 33Juan MirandaD
- 41M. VitíkD
- 72U. HapponenG
AC Milan
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A. Cissè | M | 90 | 8.3 | 2 | — | 2 | 2 | 1 | 2/4 |
| F. Tomori | D | 46 | 6.8 | — | 1 | 1 | — | 1 | 1/1 |
| A. Jashari | M | 90 | 6.6 | — | — | 1 | — | — | — |
| L. Modrić | M | 44 | 6.5 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
| Y. Musah | M | 90 | 6.4 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
| S. Pavlović | D | 90 | 6.4 | — | — | — | — | — | 1/1 |
| P. Estupiñán | D | 58 | 6.3 | — | — | 1 | — | — | — |
| F. Camarda | F | 27 | 6.2 | — | — | 2 | — | — | 1/1 |
| Gonçalo Ramos | F | 87 | 6.1 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| C. Pulišić | M | 32 | 6.1 | — | — | 1 | 1 | — | 1/1 |
| K. De Winter | D | 90 | 6.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| S. Bocoum | D | 32 | 5.8 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| C. Comotto | M | 3 | 5.8 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| O. Hutchinson | M | 58 | 5.7 | — | — | — | — | 1 | 2/9 |
| M. Maignan | G | 90 | 5.6 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| D. Bartesaghi | M | 63 | 4.3 | — | — | — | — | — | 0/1 |
| V. Vladimirov | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| L. Ossola | M | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| L. Torriani | G | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| F. Terracciano | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| L. P. Bouyer | G | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Bologna
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S. Mbangula | F | 90 | 9.2 | 3 | — | 4 | 3 | 1 | 1/3 |
| J. Odgaard | F | 90 | 7.2 | — | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2 | — |
| N. Zortea | M | 90 | 6.7 | — | 1 | — | — | 1 | 2/4 |
| N. Cambiaghi | F | 31 | 6.6 | — | — | 1 | — | — | — |
| L. Ferguson | M | 90 | 6.6 | — | — | — | — | — | 3/3 |
| A. Theate | D | 70 | 6.5 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| F. Bernardeschi | F | 59 | 6.5 | — | — | — | — | 2 | 1/1 |
| M. Vitík | D | 32 | 6.4 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
| Juan Miranda | D | 31 | 6.3 | — | 1 | 1 | — | 1 | — |
| R. Alhassane | M | 59 | 6.2 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
| T. Pobega | M | 90 | 6.2 | — | — | 1 | 1 | — | — |
| E. Helland | D | 11 | 6.1 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Ł. Skorupski | G | 90 | 6.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| N. Casale | D | 79 | 6.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| T. Heggem | D | 20 | 5.8 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| M. Darmian | D | 58 | 5.6 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| O. El Azzouzi | M | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| U. Happonen | G | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| M. Amondarain | M | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| M. Pessina | G | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| A. Dovbyk | F | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| M. Libra | M | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| N. Moro | M | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Prediction Q&A
- Who did Fipster predict to win AC Milan vs Bologna?
- Fipster's AI model predicted AC Milan to win against Bologna.
- What score did Fipster predict for AC Milan vs Bologna?
- Fipster predicted a final score of AC Milan 2–0 Bologna.
- What were the win probabilities for AC Milan vs Bologna?
- Fipster's model gave AC Milan a 82% chance of winning, Bologna a 9% chance, and a 9% chance of a draw.
- How confident was Fipster in this prediction?
- Fipster's model assigned this prediction 82% confidence — a high-confidence call.