AC Milan vs Benfica
Benfica stuns AC Milan with a clinical double strike
Two well-timed goals from D. Lukebakio and J. Kamiński secure a solid away win.
Benfica took the lead early through D. Lukebakio's 16th-minute strike and doubled their advantage after the break with J. Kamiński's goal at 53 minutes. AC Milan were left scoreless on home turf as Benfica's disciplined performance earned them a 2-0 victory in the UEFA Europa League. This result defied Fipster's high-confidence prediction of a Milan win, marking a notable upset.
Outcome probability
The group stage fixture between AC Milan and Benfica promises an intriguing battle of styles and form. Both teams boast attacking talents, but the Rossoneri look poised to leverage their home advantage and recent momentum to secure all three points.
Match factors
Benfica's potent home scoring form
Benfica averages 4.7 goals per home game, indicating strong attacking potential in this fixture
V. Pavlidis' recent scoring streak
Pavlidis scored 6 goals in last 10 games, showing excellent form and finishing ability
A. Bah's set-piece threat
As top assister with 2 assists, Bah's delivery could unlock AC Milan's defense
No confirmed injuries for Benfica
Full squad availability boosts Benfica's attacking options and tactical flexibility
The context
Benfica have shown strong form in this competition, with four wins, one draw, and just one loss in six matches. Their recent play-off victory away at Aarhus (3-1) highlights their capability on the road. AC Milan, meanwhile, will be eager to assert themselves early in the group phase to build confidence and points.
Key insights
V. Pavlidis
Benfica
Top scorer with 6 goals in last 10 matches, showing excellent form and finishing ability.
UEFA Europa League 26/276 goals in last 10 games, 3 appearances
A. Bah
Benfica
Leading assist provider with 2 assists, effective in set-piece delivery and offensive contributions from defence.
UEFA Europa League 26/272 assists in last 10 games, 3 appearances
G. Prestianni
Benfica
Midfielder with 3 goals in last 10 games, showing goal threat from midfield that could exploit AC Milan’s midfield space.
UEFA Europa League 26/273 goals in last 10 games, 2 appearances
Rafa
Benfica
Consistent goal scorer with 4 goals in last 10 games, important attacking outlet for Benfica.
UEFA Europa League 26/274 goals in last 10 games, 4 appearances
Analysis
The prediction leans heavily towards a home win, with a 2-1 scoreline the most likely outcome. AC Milan’s attacking threat, spearheaded by key players, is expected to break down Benfica’s defence. The halftime score of 1-0 suggests a tight opening period before Milan pull away. The match is also expected to be competitive, with around three cards likely to be shown.
Key facts
- 1.AC Milan predicted to win 2-1, with a 1-0 halftime lead.
- 2.Benfica have a strong recent record in this competition: W4 D1 L1 in six matches.
- 3.Benfica’s last knockout match was a 3-1 away win at Aarhus.
- 4.Three cards are expected in the match, indicating a competitive game.
- 5.V. Pavlidis is a key attacking threat with 6 goals in last 10 games.
- 6.A. Bah leads assists with 2 in the last 10 games, posing a set-piece threat.
- 7.No confirmed injuries for Benfica, full squad available.
Prediction
Expect AC Milan to take the lead by halftime and hold on for a 2-1 victory. Benfica will push hard but ultimately fall short against the Rossoneri’s home resilience and attacking edge.
Player Insights
Standout players Fipster expects to impact the match — curated highlights, not full squad lists
Home — AC Milan
No standout top scorers flagged for AC Milan
Away — Benfica
The verdict
This encounter should provide plenty of excitement, with AC Milan’s home form and attacking prowess giving them the slight upper hand. Benfica will not go quietly, but the Rossoneri are favoured to come out on top in a closely contested match.
Form as the teams went into this match — excludes this result and anything since.
Team Comparison
Season shape — attack, defence, form, clean sheets & win rate
Home vs Away comparison
Goal difference in each of the last few fixtures — above the line is a net win, below is a net loss
No recent fixture data
Season comparison
Goals scored & conceded, goal difference and clean sheets across the season
AC Milan has no record in this competition yet, so there is nothing to compare these totals against.
Streaks
Recent-form runs — each side’s most-recent game meets in the middle
Head to Head
Pavlović
Yellow Card
Lukebakio
Assist: Kamiński
El Karouani
Yellow Card
Durán
Yellow Card
Hutchinson
Terracciano
Kamiński
Assist: El Karouani
Bartesaghi
Cissè
Aursnes
Sudakov
Jashari
Daniel Banjaqui
Yellow Card
Durán
Kamiński
Barreiro
Yellow Card
El Karouani
Pavlidis
Yellow Card
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Sparta Praha | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +3 | 3 |
| 2 |  Benfica | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 3 |
| 3 |  Bayer Leverkusen | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 3 |
| 34 |  1899 Hoffenheim | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 |
| 35 |  AC Milan | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 |
| 36 |  Ararat-Armenia | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -3 | 0 |
Match Statistics
AC Milan
3-4-2-1Starting XI
- 5K. De WinterD
- 9Gonçalo RamosF
- 16M. MaignanG
- 20O. HutchinsonF
- 21S. ChukwuezeM
- 30A. JashariM
- 31S. PavlovićD
- 33D. BartesaghiM
- 42F. TerraccianoD
- 70A. CissèF
- 80Y. MusahM
Substitutes
- 2P. EstupiñánD
- 8R. Loftus-CheekM
- 11C. PulišićM
- 12A. RabiotM
- 14L. ModrićM
- 22Diego MoreiraF
- 23F. TomoriD
- 34Mario GilaD
- 46M. GabbiaD
- 56A. SaelemaekersF
- 73F. CamardaF
- 96L. TorrianiG
Benfica
4-2-3-1Starting XI
- 1A. TrubinG
- 3A. CircatiD
- 8F. AursnesM
- 10H. SudakovM
- 11D. LukebakioM
- 13J. KamińskiM
- 22J. DuránF
- 34S. El KarouaniD
- 36João PalhinhaM
- 44Tomás AraújoD
- 58Daniel BanjaquiD
Substitutes
- 2C. LengletD
- 5E. BarrenecheaM
- 14V. PavlidisF
- 16ManuM
- 18L. BarreiroM
- 21A. SchjelderupF
- 24Samuel SoaresG
- 25G. PrestianniF
- 26S. DahlD
- 27RafaM
- 30C. EcheverriM
- 72A. CabralF
AC Milan
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Samuel Chukwueze | M | 90 | 7.3 | — | — | — | — | 4 | 3/4 |
| Davide Bartesaghi | M | 57 | 6.9 | — | — | — | — | 3 | 2/4 |
| Alphadjo Cissè | F | 57 | 6.9 | — | — | 1 | 1 | — | — |
| Yunus Musah | M | 90 | 6.9 | — | — | 1 | — | 2 | — |
| Koni De Winter | D | 90 | 6.7 | — | — | 1 | — | — | — |
| Omari Hutchinson | F | 45 | 6.5 | — | — | 1 | — | — | 1/2 |
| Filippo Terracciano | D | 45 | 6.5 | — | — | 1 | 1 | — | — |
| Mike Maignan(C) | G | 90 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Strahinja Pavlović | D | 90 | 6.2 | — | — | 1 | — | — | 0/1 |
| Ardon Jashari | M | 73 | 6.2 | — | — | 1 | — | 1 | 0/1 |
| Gonçalo Ramos | F | 90 | 5.9 | — | — | 3 | — | — | 1/2 |
| Substitutes | |||||||||
| Luka Modrić | M | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fikayo Tomori | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Ruben Loftus-Cheek | M | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Francesco Camarda | F | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Lorenzo Torriani | G | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Matteo Gabbia | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Pervis Estupiñán | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Alexis Saelemaekers | F | 33 | 7.7 | — | — | — | — | 2 | 1/2 |
| Mario Gila | D | 45 | 7.2 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Adrien Rabiot | M | 17 | 6.7 | — | — | 1 | — | — | 0/1 |
| Diego Moreira | F | 33 | 6.7 | — | — | 1 | — | — | — |
| Christian Pulišić | M | 45 | 6.2 | — | — | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0/2 |
Benfica
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anatoliy Trubin | G | 90 | 8.6 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Dodi Lukebakio | M | 90 | 8.5 | 1 | — | 3 | 3 | — | 1/2 |
| Tomás Araújo | D | 90 | 8.3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Jakub Kamiński | M | 80 | 7.9 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | — |
| Souffian El Karouani | D | 88 | 7.7 | — | 1 | 1 | — | 1 | — |
| João Palhinha | M | 90 | 7.5 | — | — | — | — | 1 | 1/1 |
| Daniel Banjaqui | D | 90 | 7.3 | — | — | — | — | 1 | 2/3 |
| Alessandro Circati | D | 90 | 7.2 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fredrik Aursnes(C) | M | 70 | 6.9 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Georgiy Sudakov | M | 70 | 6.6 | — | — | 1 | — | 1 | 2/3 |
| Jhon Durán | F | 80 | 6.2 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Substitutes | |||||||||
| Rafa Silva | M | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Samuel Dahl | D | 2 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Enzo Barrenechea | M | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Samuel Soares | G | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Manu Silva | M | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Clément Lenglet | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Claudio Echeverri | M | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Anísio Cabral | F | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Gianluca Prestianni | F | 20 | 6.6 | — | — | 1 | — | — | — |
| Leandro Barreiro | M | 20 | 6.5 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Vangelis Pavlidis | F | 10 | 6.5 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
| Andreas Schjelderup | F | 10 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
Prediction Q&A
- Who did Fipster predict to win AC Milan vs Benfica?
- Fipster's AI model predicted AC Milan to win against Benfica.
- What score did Fipster predict for AC Milan vs Benfica?
- Fipster predicted a final score of AC Milan 2–1 Benfica.
- What were the win probabilities for AC Milan vs Benfica?
- Fipster's model gave AC Milan a 95% chance of winning, Benfica a 2% chance, and a 3% chance of a draw.
- How confident was Fipster in this prediction?
- Fipster's model assigned this prediction 95% confidence — a high-confidence call.