AC Milan vs Atalanta
Match recap
Atalanta beat AC Milan 3–2 in their Serie A fixture. Pavlović and Nkunku scored for AC Milan; Éderson, Zappacosta, and Raspadori replied for Atalanta. Expected-goals data put the chance balance at 1.94 for AC Milan versus 1.08 for Atalanta. AC Milan sit 5th in the Serie A table while Atalanta are 7th.
Analysis
The upcoming Serie A clash between AC Milan and Atalanta promises a tight contest at the iconic San Siro. Both teams have their strengths, but the home side looks poised to clinch a narrow victory.
AC Milan sit comfortably in 3rd place with 67 points, while Atalanta trail in 7th with 55 points. Historically, their encounters have been competitive, with Atalanta holding a slight edge in wins. However, Milan's home advantage and recent form could tip the scales.
Despite some key injuries to AC Milan's attacking options like Rabiot and Pulišić, Rafael Leão remains a potent threat, boasting 9 goals this season and strong home performances. Defensively, Milan's Pavlović and Tomori form a solid partnership, likely to frustrate Atalanta's top scorer Krstović. Atalanta's creativity is hampered by injuries to De Ketelaere and de Roon, reducing their midfield control.
Prediction
We predict a 1-0 victory for AC Milan, with Rafael Leão likely to be the match-winner. The game is expected to be tight and tactical, with around four cards issued as both sides battle hard for points.
Outcome probability
Key Insights
AC Milan's Attack Weakened by Key Injuries
Leão, Pulišić, and Rabiot are injured, reducing scoring and creativity options.
Defensive Solidity from Pavlović and Tomori
Strong defensive duo with above-average duel success and passing accuracy.
Krstović Leads Atalanta's Scoring Threat
Krstović's recent goal form and minutes played make him a key threat.
AC Milan's Recent Home Form Mixed
Recent home results show some inconsistency, impacting confidence.
Atalanta Missing Key Playmakers
De Ketelaere and de Roon injuries reduce midfield creativity and control.
Key Takeaways
In summary, AC Milan's home advantage and defensive solidity should see them edge out Atalanta in a closely fought match. Expect a disciplined game with limited chances, culminating in a slender Milan win.
- AC Milan currently 3rd in Serie A with 67 points; Atalanta 7th with 55 points.
- In 20 head-to-head meetings, AC Milan have won 5, Atalanta 7, with 8 draws.
- Head-to-head matches average 2.6 goals per game.
- Rafael Leão is AC Milan's top scorer with 9 goals this season.
- Atalanta's Nikola Krstović leads their scoring with 10 goals.
- AC Milan's defensive duo Pavlović and Tomori have high duel success rates.
- Atalanta missing key playmakers De Ketelaere and de Roon due to injury.
Player Insights
Standout players Fipster expects to impact the match — curated highlights, not full squad lists
Home — AC Milan
Away — Atalanta
No standout top scorers flagged for Atalanta
Form as the teams went into this match — excludes this result and anything since.
Team Comparison
Season shape — attack, defence, form, clean sheets & win rate
Home vs Away comparison
Goal difference in each of the last few fixtures — above the line is a net win, below is a net loss
Season comparison
Goals scored & conceded, goal difference and clean sheets across the season
Halftime Performance
What each side does once the whistle goes for half time
Streaks
Recent-form runs — each side’s most-recent game meets in the middle
Head to Head
Éderson
Zappacosta
Assist: Krstović
Rafael Leão
Yellow Card
Loftus-Cheek
Scalvini
Raspadori
Assist: Éderson
Zappacosta
Giménez
De Winter
Rafael Leão
De Ketelaere
Unknown
Hien
Yellow Card
Bartesaghi
Pavlović
Assist: Ricci
Estupiñán
Yellow Card
Rabiot
Yellow Card
Krstović
Yellow Card
Bellanova
Yellow Card
Nkunku
Penalty
Saelemaekers
Yellow Card
Match Statistics
AC Milan
3-5-2Starting XI
- 4S. RicciM
- 5K. De WinterD
- 7S. GiménezF
- 8R. Loftus-CheekM
- 10Rafael LeãoF
- 12A. RabiotM
- 16M. MaignanG
- 31S. PavlovićD
- 33D. BartesaghiM
- 46M. GabbiaD
- 56A. SaelemaekersM
Substitutes
- 1P. TerraccianoG
- 2P. EstupiñánD
- 9N. FüllkrugF
- 18C. NkunkuF
- 19Y. FofanaM
- 24Z. AthekameD
- 27D. OdoguD
- 30A. JashariM
- 37M. PittarellaG
Atalanta
3-4-2-1Starting XI
- 4I. HienD
- 13ÉdersonM
- 15M. de RoonM
- 17C. De KetelaereF
- 18G. RaspadoriF
- 23S. KolašinacD
- 29M. CarnesecchiG
- 42G. ScalviniD
- 59N. ZalewskiM
- 77D. ZappacostaM
- 90N. KrstovićF
Substitutes
- 3O. KossounouD
- 5M. BakkerD
- 6Y. MusahM
- 7K. SulemanaF
- 8Mario PasalicM
- 9G. ScamaccaF
- 10L. SamardžićM
- 16R. BellanovaD
- 31F. RossiG
- 40R. ObriÄD
- 45D. VavassoriF
- 57M. SportielloG
- 69H. AhanorD
AC Milan
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Samuele Ricci | M | 90 | 7.6 | — | 1 | — | — | 2 | — |
| Strahinja Pavlović | D | 90 | 7.3 | 1 | — | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1/1 |
| Adrien Rabiot | M | 90 | 6.9 | — | — | 3 | — | 1 | 1/2 |
| Santiago Giménez | F | 58 | 6.9 | — | — | 2 | 2 | — | 0/1 |
| Alexis Saelemaekers | M | 90 | 6.9 | — | — | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1/5 |
| Matteo Gabbia | D | 90 | 6.7 | — | — | 1 | — | — | — |
| Rafael Leão | F | 58 | 6.6 | — | — | 3 | 1 | — | 1/4 |
| Ruben Loftus-Cheek | M | 45 | 6.5 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
| Davide Bartesaghi | M | 80 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | 2 | 0/1 |
| Mike Maignan(C) | G | 90 | 6.2 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Koni De Winter | D | 58 | 6.0 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
| Substitutes | |||||||||
| Matteo Pittarella | G | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Pietro Terracciano | G | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Ardon Jashari | M | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| David Odogu | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Christopher Nkunku | F | 45 | 8.5 | 1 | — | 4 | 3 | 1 | 2/3 |
| Pervis Estupiñán | D | 10 | 7.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Zachary Athekame | D | 32 | 6.9 | — | — | 1 | 1 | — | 1/1 |
| Youssouf Fofana | M | 32 | 6.7 | — | — | — | — | 3 | 0/1 |
| Niclas Füllkrug | F | 32 | 6.6 | — | — | — | — | 2 | — |
Atalanta
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marco Carnesecchi | G | 90 | 8.7 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Éderson | M | 90 | 8.2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0/1 |
| Giacomo Raspadori | F | 90 | 7.3 | 1 | — | 2 | 1 | 2 | — |
| Davide Zappacosta | M | 55 | 7.2 | 1 | — | 1 | 1 | — | 1/1 |
| Isak Hien | D | 90 | 6.9 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Giorgio Scalvini | D | 48 | 6.9 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Nicola Zalewski | M | 90 | 6.7 | — | — | 1 | 1 | 1 | — |
| Charles De Ketelaere | F | 63 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | 1 | 0/1 |
| Marten de Roon(C) | M | 90 | 6.2 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Sead Kolašinac | D | 90 | 6.2 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Nikola Krstović | F | 90 | 6.0 | — | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0/1 |
| Substitutes | |||||||||
| Relja Obrić | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Dominic Vavassori | F | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Kamaldeen Sulemana | F | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Lazar Samardžić | M | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Yunus Musah | M | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Marco Sportiello | G | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Gianluca Scamacca | F | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Francesco Rossi | G | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Mitchel Bakker | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Odilon Kossounou | D | 15 | 6.6 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Mario Pašalić | M | 27 | 6.6 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Honest Ahanor | D | 27 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Raoul Bellanova | D | 35 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | 1 | 1/1 |