Abha vs Al-Ittihad FC
Abha snatch draw from Al-Ittihad
Faisal Al Subiani's late strike rescues a point for Abha against the visitors.
Al-Ittihad FC looked set for victory after H. Aouar put them ahead shortly after the break, but Abha fought back with a crucial goal from Faisal Al Subiani in the 87th minute to level the score. The 1-1 draw defied Fipster's high-confidence prediction of an away win, turning what seemed a likely Al-Ittihad triumph into a shared spoils scenario.
Outcome probability
This Saudi Professional League regular season fixture sees Al-Ittihad FC aiming to extend their strong run against struggling Abha. With Abha languishing near the bottom of the table and Al-Ittihad comfortably placed in the top four, the visitors look poised to continue their impressive form.
Match factors
Al-Ittihad's superior scoring form
Al-Ittihad averages 2 goals per game with top scorers En-Nesyri (7) and Ilenikhena (6) leading attack
En-Nesyri's hot streak
En-Nesyri scored 6 goals in last 5 matches, showing strong recent form
Abha's defensive struggles
Abha concedes 1.8 goals per game and has a 3-game conceding streak at home, vulnerable to Al-Ittihad attack
Ilenikhena's dual threat
Ilenikhena contributes 6 goals and 3 assists this season, key playmaker and scorer
Al-Ittihad's creative midfield support
Aouar and Ríos provide creativity with combined 4 assists, enhancing scoring chances
The context
Abha sit 18th with just 2 points from 9 games, having yet to register a win this season. Their defensive frailties are evident, conceding an average of 1.8 goals per game and currently on a three-match home conceding streak. Meanwhile, Al-Ittihad FC are fourth with 23 points from 10 games, boasting a potent attack and a goal difference that dwarfs their hosts'.
Key insights
Youssef En-Nesyri
Al-Ittihad FC
Top scorer in the league with 7 goals, including 6 in the last 5 matches, making him a key threat for Al-Ittihad.
Pro League 26/277 goals in 10 appearances, 0.7 goals/game
George Ilenikhena
Al-Ittihad FC
Contributes both goals and assists with 6 goals and 3 assists, providing vital creativity and finishing.
Pro League 26/276 goals and 3 assists in 8 appearances
Houssem-Eddine Chaâbane Aouar
Al-Ittihad FC
Creative midfielder providing key assists, enhancing Al-Ittihad's attacking threat.
Pro League 26/272 assists in 9 appearances
Analysis
Al-Ittihad FC's attacking prowess is led by Youssef En-Nesyri, who has netted 7 goals this season, including 6 in his last 5 matches, making him a constant threat. George Ilenikhena complements him well with 6 goals and 3 assists, providing both scoring and creative spark. Abha's defence has struggled to contain opponents, which bodes well for Al-Ittihad's forward line. The visitors are expected to take an early lead and maintain control, despite Abha's attempts to claw back.
Key facts
- 1.Abha are ranked 18th with 2 points from 9 games (W0 D2 L7).
- 2.Al-Ittihad FC are ranked 4th with 23 points from 10 games (W7 D2 L1).
- 3.Al-Ittihad FC have a goal difference of +21, significantly better than Abha.
- 4.Al-Ittihad FC average 2 goals per game this season.
- 5.Abha concede an average of 1.8 goals per game and have a 3-game home conceding streak.
- 6.Youssef En-Nesyri has scored 7 goals in 10 appearances, including 6 in the last 5 matches.
- 7.George Ilenikhena has 6 goals and 3 assists in 8 games this season.
Prediction
We predict Al-Ittihad FC to lead 1-0 at halftime and ultimately win 2-1. The match should feature moderate disciplinary action, with around four cards expected. Al-Ittihad's superior form and firepower should see them through, though Abha may get a late consolation goal.
Player Insights
Standout players Fipster expects to impact the match — curated highlights, not full squad lists
Home — Abha
Away — Al-Ittihad FC
The verdict
In summary, Al-Ittihad FC's quality and momentum make them the clear favourites to claim all three points. Abha's defensive woes and lack of wins this season suggest they will struggle to keep the visitors at bay for 90 minutes.
Prediction generated 27 Oct 2026, 14:40 UTC · Fipster Model v1.166
Form as the teams went into this match — excludes this result and anything since.
Team Comparison
Season shape — attack, defence, form, clean sheets & win rate
Home vs Away comparison
Goal difference in each of the last few fixtures — above the line is a net win, below is a net loss
Season comparison
Goals scored & conceded, goal difference and clean sheets across the season
Halftime Performance
What each side does once the whistle goes for half time
Streaks
Recent-form runs — each side’s most-recent game meets in the middle
Head to Head
Rios
Rosier
Yellow Card
Mohammed Al Dossary
Yellow Card
Aouar
Abdulkarim Darisi
Koshaim Al Karani
Firas Al-Ghamdi
Bergwijn
En-Nesyri
Rosier
Faisal Al Subiani
Abdi
Kamil Boumedmed
Yellow Card
Al-Daajani
Yellow Card
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Al-Qadisiyah FC | 12 | 9 | 1 | 2 | +20 | 28 |
| 3 |  Al-Hilal Saudi FC | 10 | 9 | 0 | 1 | +21 | 27 |
| 4 |  Al-Ittihad FC | 11 | 7 | 3 | 1 | +10 | 24 |
| 5 |  NEOM | 12 | 7 | 1 | 4 | +8 | 22 |
| 17 |  Al Taawon | 12 | 0 | 5 | 7 | -14 | 5 |
| 18 |  Abha | 11 | 0 | 3 | 8 | -12 | 3 |
Match Statistics
Abha
4-4-1-1Starting XI
- 3J. GaariD
- 7Firas Al-GhamdiM
- 8Nasser Al-DaajaniM
- 11A. GoryM
- 16D. LéonG
- 17Abdulkarim DarisiM
- 19Abdullah Al FahadD
- 20Koshaim Al KaraniF
- 23Mohammed Al DossaryD
- 32L. RosierM
- 39M. Al-ZaidD
Substitutes
- 6Faisal Al SubianiM
- 9Kamil BoumedmedF
- 21Abdulrahman Al BouqG
- 28Bader Al MutairiM
- 29Majed DawranM
- 37Abdulbasit Al-HindiD
- 55M. BorrellM
- 80Safwan SaudD
- 90Amar Al YuhaybiM
Al-Ittihad FC
4-2-3-1Starting XI
- 1P. RajkovićG
- 2Danilo PereiraD
- 5R. RiosM
- 6Saad Al MosaD
- 8Mukhtar AliM
- 10H. AouarM
- 13Muhannad Al ShanqitiD
- 21Y. En-NesyriF
- 23G. WijnaldumM
- 25F. AbdiD
- 34S. BergwijnM
Substitutes
- 9G. IlenikhenaF
- 22Marwan Al SahafiF
- 27Ahmed Al GhamdiF
- 32Ahmed Al JulaydanD
- 41Mohammed FallatahM
- 42Muath FaqeehiD
- 50Mohammed Al AbsiG
- 66Mohammed BarnawiD
Abha
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Faisal Al Subiani | M | 13 | 8.2 | 1 | — | 1 | 1 | 1 | — |
| Abdullah Al Fahad | D | 90 | 7.1 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| J. Gaari | D | 90 | 7.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Amar Al Yuhaybi | M | 22 | 6.7 | — | — | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2/4 |
| Kamil Boumedmed | F | 33 | 6.6 | — | — | 3 | 2 | — | 1/2 |
| Mohammed Al Dossary | D | 90 | 6.6 | — | — | — | — | 1 | 1/3 |
| M. Borrell | M | 22 | 6.5 | — | — | 1 | — | — | 0/1 |
| M. Al-Zaid | D | 90 | 6.5 | — | — | — | — | — | 0/1 |
| Abdulkarim Darisi | M | 57 | 6.4 | — | — | — | — | — | 2/7 |
| Nasser Al-Daajani | M | 90 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | 1 | 0/1 |
| Firas Al-Ghamdi | M | 68 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| A. Gory | M | 90 | 6.2 | — | — | — | — | — | 0/3 |
| Koshaim Al Karani | F | 68 | 6.2 | — | — | 1 | 1 | — | 1/3 |
| D. Léon | G | 90 | 6.1 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| L. Rosier | M | 77 | 6.0 | — | — | — | — | — | 1/1 |
| Bader Al Mutairi | M | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Majed Dawran | M | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Abdulrahman Al Bouq | G | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Abdulbasit Al-Hindi | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Safwan Saud | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Al-Ittihad FC
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H. Aouar | M | 90 | 8.1 | 1 | — | 2 | 1 | — | 3/5 |
| Saad Al Mosa | D | 90 | 7.6 | — | — | — | — | 1 | 1/1 |
| Danilo Pereira | D | 90 | 7.3 | — | — | 1 | 1 | — | — |
| P. Rajković | G | 90 | 7.3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Mukhtar Ali | M | 90 | 7.2 | — | — | 1 | — | 1 | — |
| S. Bergwijn | M | 71 | 7.0 | — | — | — | — | 3 | 2/4 |
| F. Abdi | D | 89 | 6.8 | — | — | 1 | 1 | — | 1/1 |
| Muhannad Al Shanqiti | D | 90 | 6.7 | — | — | — | — | — | 0/1 |
| G. Ilenikhena | F | 19 | 6.6 | — | — | 1 | — | — | 1/2 |
| Muath Faqeehi | D | 1 | 6.6 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Marwan Al Sahafi | F | 19 | 6.5 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| R. Rios | M | 8 | 6.5 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Ahmed Al Ghamdi | F | 82 | 6.4 | — | — | — | — | 2 | 1/1 |
| Y. En-Nesyri | F | 71 | 6.3 | — | — | 3 | — | — | — |
| G. Wijnaldum | M | 90 | 6.2 | — | — | 1 | — | — | 3/4 |
| Mohammed Al Absi | G | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Mohammed Barnawi | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Mohammed Fallatah | M | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Ahmed Al Julaydan | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Prediction Q&A
- Who did Fipster predict to win Abha vs Al-Ittihad FC?
- Fipster's AI model predicted Al-Ittihad FC to win against Abha.
- What score did Fipster predict for Abha vs Al-Ittihad FC?
- Fipster predicted a final score of Abha 1–2 Al-Ittihad FC.
- What were the win probabilities for Abha vs Al-Ittihad FC?
- Fipster's model gave Abha a 9% chance of winning, Al-Ittihad FC a 82% chance, and a 9% chance of a draw.
- How confident was Fipster in this prediction?
- Fipster's model assigned this prediction 82% confidence — a high-confidence call.