1899 Hoffenheim vs Hamburger SV
Hamburger SV snatch late win at Hoffenheim
A dramatic stoppage-time strike seals a 3-2 victory for the visitors.
Hamburger SV edged out 1899 Hoffenheim 3-2 in a thrilling Bundesliga encounter. Y. Poulsen set the tone early for Hamburg, and despite Hoffenheim pulling level through an own goal by S. Bornauw and a strike from B. Conté, Hamburg's T. Moffi and M. Muheim delivered the decisive blows late on. This result defied Fipster's high-confidence prediction of a Hoffenheim rout, proving the visitors had other ideas.
Outcome probability
As the new season kicks off, 1899 Hoffenheim and Hamburger SV prepare to face off in what promises to be an intriguing clash. Hoffenheim, bolstered by key summer signings, look poised to assert their dominance early on.
Key facts
- 1.1899 Hoffenheim finished 5th last season with 61 points.
- 2.Hamburger SV ended last season 13th with 38 points.
- 3.Hoffenheim have a +13 goal difference; Hamburger SV have -14.
- 4.Hoffenheim averaged 1.79 points per game last season.
- 5.Hamburger SV averaged 1.12 points per game last season.
- 6.Hoffenheim signed M. Rots, P. Wimmer, and A. Daghim over the summer.
- 7.Hamburger SV signed free agent P. Daka.
- 8.Hoffenheim lost B. Touré and G. Prömel; Hamburger SV lost W. Mikelbrencis, R. Philippe (loan), and J. Dompé.
The context
Both teams have refreshed their squads over the summer. Hoffenheim have strengthened with the arrivals of M. Rots, P. Wimmer, and A. Daghim, while parting ways with B. Touré and G. Prömel. Hamburger SV have welcomed free agent P. Daka but lost several players including W. Mikelbrencis and J. Dompé. These changes set the stage for a season opener where Hoffenheim appear better equipped.
Analysis
Looking at the league standings from last season, Hoffenheim finished 5th with 61 points, comfortably ahead of Hamburger SV who ended 13th with 38 points. Hoffenheim's goal difference of +13 compared to Hamburger SV's -14 highlights their stronger attack and defence. Additionally, Hoffenheim averaged 1.79 points per game last season, a clear edge over Hamburger SV's 1.12, indicating better overall consistency and form.
Prediction
Given the clear advantages in squad strength, league position, and goal difference, Hoffenheim are expected to secure a convincing 4-1 victory in this season opener. Their attacking prowess and defensive solidity should prove too much for Hamburger SV.
The verdict
This match sets the tone for the season, with Hoffenheim looking to build on their strong foundation. Hamburger SV will need to regroup quickly after this tough start if they hope to climb the table.
Prediction generated 20 Sep 2026, 19:22 UTC · Fipster Model v1.161
Form as the teams went into this match — excludes this result and anything since.
Team Comparison
Season shape — attack, defence, form, clean sheets & win rate
Home vs Away comparison
Goal difference in each of the last few fixtures — above the line is a net win, below is a net loss
Season comparison
Goals scored & conceded, goal difference and clean sheets across the season
Halftime Performance
What each side does once the whistle goes for half time
Streaks
Recent-form runs — each side’s most-recent game meets in the middle
Head to Head
Poulsen
Remberg
Goal cancelled
Bornauw (OG)
Conté
Assist: Asllani
Bernardo
Yellow Card
Poulsen
Asllani
Lemperle
Bernardo
Red Card
Machida
Daghim
Lemke
Sambi Lokonga
Adeline
Avdullahu
Yellow Card
Goal cancelled
Moffi
Assist: Muheim
Conté
Muheim
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  SC Freiburg | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | +10 | 13 |
| 11 |  VfB Stuttgart | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | -1 | 6 |
| 12 |  Hamburger SV | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | -10 | 6 |
| 13 |  FC Schalke 04 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | -2 | 5 |
| 16 |  Union Berlin | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | -12 | 4 |
| 17 |  1899 Hoffenheim | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | -4 | 3 |
| 18 |  Borussia Mönchengladbach | 5 | 0 | 0 | 5 | -11 | 0 |
Match Statistics
1899 Hoffenheim
4-2-3-1Starting XI
- 1O. BaumannG
- 5O. KabakD
- 7L. AvdullahuM
- 11F. AsllaniM
- 13BernardoD
- 14A. DaghimM
- 18W. BurgerM
- 19T. LemperleF
- 20B. ContéM
- 28K. MachidaD
- 34V. CoufalD
Substitutes
- 2R. HranáčD
- 9Max MoerstedtF
- 10A. HložekF
- 15V. GendreyD
- 17Nathan De CatM
- 22A. PrassD
- 27A. KramarićF
- 37L. PhilippG
- 39M. RotsD
Hamburger SV
3-4-2-1Starting XI
- 1Daniel Heuer FernandesG
- 3D. Møller WolfeM
- 5M. AdelineM
- 6A. Sambi LokongaM
- 15Y. PoulsenF
- 17W. OmariD
- 20Fábio VieiraM
- 21N. RembergM
- 24N. CapaldoD
- 33S. BornauwD
- 37L. LemkeM
Substitutes
- 9T. MoffiF
- 10I. PheraiM
- 12S. TangvikG
- 19Otto Emerson StangeF
- 22Kofi Jeremy AmoakoM
- 23J. TorunarighaD
- 28M. MuheimD
- 38Alexander Røssing-LelesiitF
- 43S. NandjaD
1899 Hoffenheim
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| B. Conté | M | 87 | 7.9 | 1 | — | 2 | 1 | 1 | 6/8 |
| V. Coufal | D | 90 | 7.2 | — | — | 1 | — | 4 | 0/2 |
| A. Hložek | F | 27 | 6.8 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| K. Machida | D | 74 | 6.7 | — | — | 1 | — | — | — |
| L. Avdullahu | M | 90 | 6.7 | — | — | — | — | 2 | — |
| F. Asllani | M | 63 | 6.6 | — | 1 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0/1 |
| O. Kabak | D | 90 | 6.6 | — | — | 2 | — | 1 | 1/1 |
| A. Kramarić | F | 27 | 6.5 | — | — | 1 | — | — | — |
| T. Lemperle | F | 63 | 6.5 | — | — | 5 | 1 | — | 0/1 |
| A. Daghim | M | 74 | 6.4 | — | — | — | — | 2 | 3/3 |
| W. Burger | M | 90 | 6.3 | — | — | 2 | 1 | — | — |
| A. Prass | D | 16 | 6.2 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| V. Gendrey | D | 3 | 6.1 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| R. Hranáč | D | 16 | 6.1 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| O. Baumann | G | 90 | 5.9 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Bernardo | D | 65 | 5.3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Max Moerstedt | F | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| L. Philipp | G | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| M. Rots | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Nathan De Cat | M | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Hamburger SV
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| T. Moffi | F | 14 | 8.1 | 1 | — | 1 | 1 | — | — |
| Y. Poulsen | F | 59 | 8.0 | 1 | — | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0/1 |
| N. Capaldo | D | 90 | 6.6 | — | — | 2 | — | 1 | 1/2 |
| Alexander Røssing-Lelesiit | F | 14 | 6.6 | — | — | 1 | — | — | 0/1 |
| M. Muheim | D | 49 | 6.5 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | — |
| Otto Emerson Stange | F | 31 | 6.4 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| D. Møller Wolfe | M | 90 | 6.4 | — | — | 1 | — | — | 0/3 |
| Fábio Vieira | M | 90 | 6.3 | — | — | 5 | 1 | 1 | 2/3 |
| Daniel Heuer Fernandes | G | 90 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| W. Omari | D | 90 | 6.2 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| A. Sambi Lokonga | M | 76 | 6.2 | — | — | — | — | 3 | — |
| M. Adeline | M | 76 | 6.1 | — | — | — | — | — | 0/1 |
| L. Lemke | M | 76 | 6.0 | — | — | — | — | — | 0/1 |
| Kofi Jeremy Amoako | M | 14 | 6.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| N. Remberg | M | 41 | 5.9 | — | — | 1 | — | — | 1/1 |
| S. Bornauw | D | 90 | 4.8 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| S. Nandja | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| I. Pherai | M | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| S. Tangvik | G | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| J. Torunarigha | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Prediction Q&A
- Who did Fipster predict to win 1899 Hoffenheim vs Hamburger SV?
- Fipster's AI model predicted 1899 Hoffenheim to win against Hamburger SV.
- What score did Fipster predict for 1899 Hoffenheim vs Hamburger SV?
- Fipster predicted a final score of 1899 Hoffenheim 4–1 Hamburger SV.
- What were the win probabilities for 1899 Hoffenheim vs Hamburger SV?
- Fipster's model gave 1899 Hoffenheim a 95% chance of winning, Hamburger SV a 2% chance, and a 3% chance of a draw.
- How confident was Fipster in this prediction?
- Fipster's model assigned this prediction 95% confidence — a high-confidence call.