1. FC Heidenheim vs FSV Mainz 05
Match recap
FSV Mainz 05 beat 1. FC Heidenheim 2–0 in their Bundesliga fixture. Tietz and Amiri scored for FSV Mainz 05. Expected-goals data put the chance balance at 2.53 for 1. FC Heidenheim versus 3.71 for FSV Mainz 05. 1. FC Heidenheim sit 17th in the Bundesliga table while FSV Mainz 05 are 10th.
Analysis
As the 2025/26 season nears its climax, 1. FC Heidenheim host FSV Mainz 05 in a match that promises a tight contest. Both teams have had their ups and downs, but the stats and form suggest Mainz might just sneak the win on the road.
Heidenheim sit precariously in 17th place with 26 points, struggling to find consistency, while Mainz enjoy a more comfortable 10th spot with 37 points. Historically, Mainz have a slight edge in their head-to-head record, winning three of six encounters. The goal difference also favours Mainz, who have conceded fewer goals this season.
Mainz's away scoring streak and Heidenheim's leaky home defence set the stage for an away win. Budu Zivzivadze remains a bright spark for Heidenheim with 8 goals in his last 10 games, but Mainz's midfield creativity, led by Arijon Ibrahimović and Jan Schöppner, could unlock the home defence. The predicted halftime score of 0-1 suggests Mainz will take an early lead, with Heidenheim fighting back but ultimately falling short.
Prediction
We forecast a 2-1 victory for Mainz, with a halftime lead of 0-1. The match is expected to feature three cards, reflecting a competitive but controlled encounter. Confidence in this prediction stands at 53%, indicating a moderately strong belief in Mainz's ability to claim the three points away from home.
Outcome probability
Key Insights
Heidenheim's attacking midfield creativity vs Mainz's defense
Heidenheim's midfielders like Ibrahimović and Schöppner create multiple chances, exploiting Mainz's moderate defensive solidity.
Zivzivadze's scoring form boosts Heidenheim's goal threat
Zivzivadze's 1.2 goals/90 in recent matches is well above league striker average, increasing Heidenheim's scoring potential.
Mainz's away scoring streak vs Heidenheim's home defensive struggles
Mainz has scored in all recent away games, while Heidenheim concedes over 2 goals per home game on average, favoring away win.
No significant injuries reported for either team
Both teams have full squads available, so no key player absences expected to affect tactics or performance.
Set-piece threat from Heidenheim defenders
Mainka and Busch contribute assists from set-pieces, adding an aerial threat against Mainz's defense.
Key Takeaways
In summary, while Heidenheim have their key players firing, Mainz's superior form, better league standing, and historical edge make them favourites. Expect a closely fought match with Mainz edging it 2-1, continuing their solid away form this season.
- FSV Mainz 05 lead head-to-head with 3 wins to Heidenheim's 2 in 6 matches.
- Mainz rank 10th with 37 points; Heidenheim are 17th with 26 points.
- Mainz have a better goal difference (-11) compared to Heidenheim's (-29).
- Heidenheim concede over 2 goals per home game on average this season.
- Budu Zivzivadze has scored 8 goals in his last 10 games for Heidenheim.
- Arijon Ibrahimović leads Mainz with 6 assists this season.
- The predicted halftime score is 0-1 in favour of Mainz.
- Total cards expected in the match are 3, indicating a moderately physical game.
Player Insights
Standout players Fipster expects to impact the match — curated highlights, not full squad lists
Home — 1. FC Heidenheim
Away — FSV Mainz 05
No standout top scorers flagged for FSV Mainz 05
Form as the teams went into this match — excludes this result and anything since.
Team Comparison
Season shape — attack, defence, form, clean sheets & win rate
Home vs Away comparison
Goal difference in each of the last few fixtures — above the line is a net win, below is a net loss
Season comparison
Goals scored & conceded, goal difference and clean sheets across the season
Halftime Performance
What each side does once the whistle goes for half time
Streaks
Recent-form runs — each side’s most-recent game meets in the middle
Head to Head
Tietz
Amiri
Assist: Tietz
Busch
Posch
Pieringer
Ibrahimović
Widmer
Amiri
Becker
Yellow Card
Dinkçi
Yellow Card
Dinkçi
Dorsch
Becker
Tietz
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Bayern München | 34 | 28 | 5 | 1 | +86 | 89 |
| 9 |  FC Augsburg | 34 | 12 | 7 | 15 | -16 | 43 |
| 10 |  FSV Mainz 05 | 34 | 10 | 10 | 14 | -9 | 40 |
| 11 |  Union Berlin | 34 | 10 | 9 | 15 | -14 | 39 |
| 16 |  VfL Wolfsburg | 34 | 7 | 8 | 19 | -24 | 29 |
| 17 |  1. FC Heidenheim | 34 | 6 | 8 | 20 | -31 | 26 |
| 18 |  FC St. Pauli | 34 | 6 | 8 | 20 | -31 | 26 |
Match Statistics
1. FC Heidenheim
4-4-1-1Starting XI
- 2Marnon-Thomas BuschD
- 3Jan SchöppnerM
- 6Patrick MainkaD
- 8Eren Sami DinkçiM
- 11Budu ZivzivadzeF
- 18Marvin PieringerF
- 19Jonas FöhrenbachD
- 22Arijon IbrahimovićM
- 26Hennes BehrensD
- 30Niklas Bernd DorschM
- 40Frank FellerG
Substitutes
- 4Tim SierslebenD
- 9Stefan SchimmerF
- 10Christian Joe ContehF
- 16Julian NiehuesM
- 17Mathias HonsakF
- 20Luca KerberM
- 21Adrian BeckM
- 23Omar Haktab TraoréD
- 41Diant RamajG
FSV Mainz 05
3-5-2Starting XI
- 2Phillipp MweneM
- 4Stefan PoschD
- 6Kaishu SanoM
- 8Paul NebelM
- 10Nadiem AmiriM
- 20Phillip TietzF
- 23Sheraldo Rudi BeckerF
- 30Silvan Dominic WidmerM
- 31Dominik KohrD
- 33Daniel BatzG
- 48Kacper PotulskiD
Substitutes
- 7Lee Jae-SungM
- 11Armindo SiebF
- 15Lennard MaloneyM
- 19Anthony CaciD
- 21Danny Vieira da CostaD
- 22Nikolas Konrad VeratschnigD
- 24Sota KawasakiM
- 27Robin ZentnerG
- 44Nelson Felix Patrick WeiperF
1. FC Heidenheim
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Frank Feller | G | 90 | 8.7 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Budu Zivzivadze | F | 90 | 7.5 | — | — | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1/3 |
| Patrick Mainka(C) | D | 90 | 7.2 | — | — | 2 | 1 | — | — |
| Jonas Föhrenbach | D | 90 | 7.0 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
| Eren Dinkçi | M | 73 | 7.0 | — | — | 1 | 1 | 1 | — |
| Niklas Dorsch | M | 73 | 6.9 | — | — | — | — | 1 | 0/1 |
| Jan Schöppner | M | 90 | 6.7 | — | — | 1 | — | 1 | 0/2 |
| Marnon Busch | D | 45 | 6.6 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Arijon Ibrahimović | M | 65 | 6.5 | — | — | 1 | — | 1 | 1/1 |
| Marvin Pieringer | F | 45 | 6.3 | — | — | 1 | — | 2 | — |
| Hennes Behrens | D | 90 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | 2 | 0/1 |
| Substitutes | |||||||||
| Diant Ramaj | G | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Tim Siersleben | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Luca Kerber | M | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Julian Niehues | M | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Adrian Beck | M | 17 | 6.9 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
| Mathias Honsak | F | 17 | 6.9 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Omar Haktab Traore | D | 45 | 6.9 | — | — | — | — | — | 1/1 |
| Stefan Schimmer | F | 25 | 6.6 | — | — | 1 | 1 | — | — |
| Christian Conteh | F | 45 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | 1 | 0/1 |
FSV Mainz 05
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Daniel Batz | G | 90 | 9.3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Kacper Potulski | D | 90 | 8.5 | — | — | 2 | 2 | — | 1/1 |
| Nadiem Amiri | M | 68 | 8.3 | 1 | — | 3 | 1 | 2 | 1/1 |
| Phillipp Mwene | M | 90 | 7.3 | — | — | — | — | 1 | 0/1 |
| Silvan Widmer(C) | M | 68 | 7.3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Kaishu Sano | M | 90 | 7.0 | — | — | 1 | 1 | 1 | — |
| Stefan Posch | D | 45 | 6.9 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
| Dominik Kohr | D | 90 | 6.9 | — | — | 1 | 1 | — | 1/3 |
| Phillip Tietz | F | 84 | 6.9 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 2/4 |
| Sheraldo Becker | F | 77 | 6.9 | — | — | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1/2 |
| Paul Nebel | M | 90 | 6.3 | — | — | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0/2 |
| Substitutes | |||||||||
| Sota Kawasaki | M | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Robin Zentner | G | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Armindo Sieb | F | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Nikolas Veratschnig | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Danny da Costa | D | 45 | 7.2 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Jae-sung Lee | M | 22 | 6.7 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Anthony Caci | D | 22 | 6.6 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Lennard Maloney | M | 13 | 6.6 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Nelson Weiper | F | 10 | 6.5 | — | — | — | — | — | — |